While the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and the more contentious $3.5 trillion budget plan have yet to be approved, the actions Joe Biden has already taken and the plans he has announced already give us a strong indication of which industries will be winners under this presidency, and which will have a tougher time. Starting with the winners, click or scroll through to find out how 30 key sectors and sub-sectors are likely to fare under the Biden administration.
Reviving US manufacturing is a key part of the Build Back Better plan, and the Biden administration is promising to invest heavily in the sector, creating millions of jobs in the process. Despite the new president's rejection of Trump's inflammatory 'America First' rhetoric, a slew of his predecessor's protectionist trade policies will remain in place, and an executive order was signed in late January tightening 'Buy American' rules to increase government purchasing from homegrown manufacturers.
The administration's infrastructure plan will focus on clean energy and effectively "green" the economy, but not yet. President Biden has pledged to boost domestic extraction of the minerals such as lithium, copper and nickel required to produce the electric cars, batteries and solar panels needed to achieve the goal of producing carbon-free electricity by 2035 and achieving total carbon neutrality by 2050. While environmental protections and other regulations are likely to be beefed up, the mining industry will in all probability cash in tremendously, and stock in major players such as Southern Copper and Lithium Corporation has been boosted.
The solar power industry will shine under the Biden administration, and after his inauguration the new President was quick to recommit America to the Paris Climate Agreement, an international agreement to tackle global warming. Biden's government is planning to install 500 million solar panels across the country by 2025 and create millions of jobs in the sector as part of its green push. No wonder solar power stocks are doing so well, with shares in companies including SolarEdge Technologies, SunRun, and Enphase Energy seeing record highs earlier this year.
Like their counterparts in solar, executives in the wind power industry must be pleased with the arrival of the new administration. Massively increasing America's wind generating capacity is a top priority for President Biden as part of his hugely ambitious clean energy drive. In fact, even before Biden assumed the top job, Congress approved a one-year extension to the production tax credit (PTC) and investment tax credit (ITC) for onshore and offshore projects in wind. The sector was further boosted in late January when the new POTUS signed a succession of executive orders to double the number of offshore leases in federal waters by 2030.
Nuclear power is far from being a clean energy, with safety issues and toxic waste a persistent concern, but fission does produce considerably less pollution and carbon than fossil fuel combustion. For this reason, the Biden administration considers it an integral part of the drive to make America carbon neutral. The government is also committed to nurturing the domestic uranium mining industry. The sector is therefore likely to boom in the coming years, though stricter regulation may take some of the edge off.
The entertainment industry has welcomed President Biden with open arms. In contrast to President Trump, the new leader of the free world is seen as an ally of Hollywood and the wider entertainment industry – he's even placed people with experience in the sector in advisory positions. Biden has been praised for his efforts supporting the entertainment industry during COVID-19, as well as for his plans to revive it after, and his tough stance on piracy and intellectual property theft.
America's legal cannabis industry is projected to blossom under the Biden administration. Both the president and Vice-President Harris advocate decriminalization of the drug on a federal level and on 19 April the Senate passed the Secure And Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act, which would allow financial institutions to do business with legit marijuana companies. The bill now moves to the Senate where it is thought to have support. Currently 18 states and DC have legalized marijuana, seven of which have done so since last year: New York, Virginia, New Mexico, New Jersey, South Dakota, Arizona, and Montana. Investment cash is pouring into the sector and stock prices, including those of industry leaders Curaleaf Holdings and Trulieve Cannabis, are on the up.
The US shipbuilding industry is another big winner. President's Biden's 'Buy American' executive order has reaffirmed the government's commitment to enforcing the 1920 Jones Act, which states that ships transporting goods between US ports must be built in America, and owned and operated by US citizens or permanent residents. The government has also made millions of dollars-worth of grants available to smaller-scale shipyards and is planning an extensive overhaul of the nation's maritime infrastructure.
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President Biden was veep when the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was made law in 2010, and now he's in the top job Biden is expected to expand it. In fact, in March, Biden extended Obamacare's special enrolment period by three months to 15 August, which allows Americans more time to take advantage of the benefits created by the coronavirus relief package. And this week Biden is set to reveal the American Family Plan, and healthcare could be part of it. CNN has reported that it has obtained a letter from 17 senators asking Biden to lower the Medicare eligibility age and expand Medicare benefits to include areas such as dental. If healthcare is expanded under these acts, millions more Americans will be taking out healthcare insurance. Companies such as UnitedHealthcare and Cigna could therefore be in line for an enormous windfall as their customer bases mushroom. But it's not all good news for the industry. As part of his plan to lower costs, the new POTUS wants to create a public health insurance option that will compete with private insurers. If take-up of the option is widespread, these companies could see their respective turnovers and profits heavily impacted.
The US pharmaceuticals industry stands to gain from the Biden administration's COVID policies and potential expansion of Affordable Care Act (ACA) as considerably more scripts are likely to be filled, but it's not all sunshine and rainbows for the healthcare sub-sector. Like his predecessor, President Biden is strongly committed to lowering drug prices and has set out several ways this will be achieved, from linking price increases to inflation and giving patients the all-clear to buy drugs from overseas.
The Biden administration recently revealed surprise plans to provide airlines and contractors with a $15 billion lifeline, of which the majority has been given to support payroll costs. This, together with the new government's handling of the pandemic, have been applauded by the aviation industry, as have the president's plan to overhaul airport infrastructure in the US and help green the sector. Nevertheless, the new POTUS has also said he will improve America's rail network under the $2 trillion infrastructure plan, which may end up reducing air passenger numbers and harming domestic aviation.
The Biden administration is shaping up to be a mixed bag for US agriculture. While the sector would benefit from a softening of the trade war with China and proposals that include paying farmers to leave land fallow to help fight climate change, the new government's proposed tax changes and increased regulation will no doubt eat into revenues and profits.
Having been treated to tax cuts and rampant deregulation under President Trump, the finance industry is experiencing a rude awakening under his successor. Though Biden's latest proposed $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus plan was welcomed by financial markets, the new POTUS has vowed to reverse the Trump tax cuts for the country's richest and strengthen policing of the sector, and a number of his policies, including the creation of a taxpayer-funded postal bank, are vehemently opposed by Wall Street.
The Biden administration's increased stimulus cash, coupled with other factors such as the 'Buy American' policy and speedy rollout of the vaccination program, should all work wonders on the flagging retail industry. The minimum wage hike could have been problematic, but even if it had gone ahead its supporters insisted that the additional business this and the stimulus would have generated by putting more money in the pockets of ordinary Americans would have comfortably offset the associated costs.
Cautiously optimistic about the Biden presidency, the gambling and gaming industry is likely to be happy about the president's tacit support of online gambling, having expressed his opposition to the Trump administration's decision to take a harder line on the 1961 Federal Wire Act, which would have posed a threat to internet gambling in the US.
America's technology industry is set to get a boost from President's Biden infrastructure drive – the government is set to spend billions to expand the broadband network – not to mention the 5G rollout, and the new commander in chief is largely supportive of the sector. But the 46th president, who loathes powerful monopolies, has been scathing in his criticism of Silicon Valley, even going as far as to call Mark Zuckerberg “a real problem" over Facebook's political advertising policies. An anti-trust reckoning that could lead to the break-up of a tech titan or two might very well be coming.
While mining companies that extract minerals essential for the green transition are almost guaranteed to flourish under Biden, the coal industry is likely to see further decline as the country eschews fossil fuels. Be that as it may, coal was left out when the president banned the sale of leases permitting the extraction of oil and gas on federal land. And on the upside, the new POTUS has vowed to reclaim abandoned mines and create jobs in America's forgotten coal mining communities.
The oil and natural gas industry, particularly the shale energy sub-sector, is set to be the biggest loser under the green-focused Biden administration. While the president has stopped short of banning fracking, he has canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement and, as previously mentioned, suspended oil and gas leasing on federal land and waters. This succession of moves has “stunned” the industry according to Fortune and left it fearing for its future.
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