US industries set to boom and bust under President Biden
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Likely winners and losers of this administration
While the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and the more contentious $3.5 trillion budget plan have yet to be approved, the actions Joe Biden has already taken and the plans he has announced already give us a strong indication of which industries will be winners under this presidency, and which will have a tougher time. Starting with the winners, click or scroll through to find out how 30 key sectors and sub-sectors are likely to fare under the Biden administration.
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Winner: Construction
President Biden is courting support for his Build Back Better post-pandemic infrastructure blitz, which if it comes to pass will be the “largest mobilization of public investment... since World War II”. Needless to say, construction industry leaders are rubbing their hands together with glee at the prospect, with firms such as Caterpillar and Vulcan Materials, which have seen their stock price surge to record highs of late, odds-on to prosper big-time.
Winner: Manufacturing
Reviving US manufacturing is a key part of the Build Back Better plan, and the Biden administration is promising to invest heavily in the sector, creating millions of jobs in the process. Despite the new president's rejection of Trump's inflammatory 'America First' rhetoric, a slew of his predecessor's protectionist trade policies will remain in place, and an executive order was signed in late January tightening 'Buy American' rules to increase government purchasing from homegrown manufacturers.
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Winner: Mining
The administration's infrastructure plan will focus on clean energy and effectively "green" the economy, but not yet. President Biden has pledged to boost domestic extraction of the minerals such as lithium, copper and nickel required to produce the electric cars, batteries and solar panels needed to achieve the goal of producing carbon-free electricity by 2035 and achieving total carbon neutrality by 2050. While environmental protections and other regulations are likely to be beefed up, the mining industry will in all probability cash in tremendously, and stock in major players such as Southern Copper and Lithium Corporation has been boosted.
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Winner: Solar power
The solar power industry will shine under the Biden administration, and after his inauguration the new President was quick to recommit America to the Paris Climate Agreement, an international agreement to tackle global warming. Biden's government is planning to install 500 million solar panels across the country by 2025 and create millions of jobs in the sector as part of its green push. No wonder solar power stocks are doing so well, with shares in companies including SolarEdge Technologies, SunRun, and Enphase Energy seeing record highs earlier this year.
Winner: Wind power
Like their counterparts in solar, executives in the wind power industry must be pleased with the arrival of the new administration. Massively increasing America's wind generating capacity is a top priority for President Biden as part of his hugely ambitious clean energy drive. In fact, even before Biden assumed the top job, Congress approved a one-year extension to the production tax credit (PTC) and investment tax credit (ITC) for onshore and offshore projects in wind. The sector was further boosted in late January when the new POTUS signed a succession of executive orders to double the number of offshore leases in federal waters by 2030.
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Winner: Nuclear power
Nuclear power is far from being a clean energy, with safety issues and toxic waste a persistent concern, but fission does produce considerably less pollution and carbon than fossil fuel combustion. For this reason, the Biden administration considers it an integral part of the drive to make America carbon neutral. The government is also committed to nurturing the domestic uranium mining industry. The sector is therefore likely to boom in the coming years, though stricter regulation may take some of the edge off.
Answers to this problem with renewable energy
Winner: Carbon offsetting
The carbon offsetting industry is another pivotal beneficiary of the Biden administration's clean energy agenda. The bulk of business in the coming years is likely to come from oil and gas companies, which will be required to drastically reduce their carbon footprint. Increasingly, many companies are voluntarily offering to reduce their carbon emissions and making promises to reach carbon neutrality. Globally, the sector could be worth $200 billion by 2050, up from just $600 million in 2019.
Winner: Entertainment
The entertainment industry has welcomed President Biden with open arms. In contrast to President Trump, the new leader of the free world is seen as an ally of Hollywood and the wider entertainment industry – he's even placed people with experience in the sector in advisory positions. Biden has been praised for his efforts supporting the entertainment industry during COVID-19, as well as for his plans to revive it after, and his tough stance on piracy and intellectual property theft.
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Winner: Legal cannabis
America's legal cannabis industry is projected to blossom under the Biden administration. Both the president and Vice-President Harris advocate decriminalization of the drug on a federal level and on 19 April the Senate passed the Secure And Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act, which would allow financial institutions to do business with legit marijuana companies. The bill now moves to the Senate where it is thought to have support. Currently 18 states and DC have legalized marijuana, seven of which have done so since last year: New York, Virginia, New Mexico, New Jersey, South Dakota, Arizona, and Montana. Investment cash is pouring into the sector and stock prices, including those of industry leaders Curaleaf Holdings and Trulieve Cannabis, are on the up.
Winner: Steel
Despite facing pressure from manufacturing organizations to drop the previous government's tariffs on steel imports, the Biden administration has so far opted to keep the duties in place, much to the delight of the domestic steel industry, which also praised the new president for signing the 'Buy American' executive order earlier this year. The sector will certainly benefit immeasurably too from the government's $2 trillion infrastructure plan.
Winner: Shipbuilding
The US shipbuilding industry is another big winner. President's Biden's 'Buy American' executive order has reaffirmed the government's commitment to enforcing the 1920 Jones Act, which states that ships transporting goods between US ports must be built in America, and owned and operated by US citizens or permanent residents. The government has also made millions of dollars-worth of grants available to smaller-scale shipyards and is planning an extensive overhaul of the nation's maritime infrastructure.
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Winner: Healthcare insurance
President Biden was veep when the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was made law in 2010, and now he's in the top job Biden is expected to expand it. In fact, in March, Biden extended Obamacare's special enrolment period by three months to 15 August, which allows Americans more time to take advantage of the benefits created by the coronavirus relief package. And this week Biden is set to reveal the American Family Plan, and healthcare could be part of it. CNN has reported that it has obtained a letter from 17 senators asking Biden to lower the Medicare eligibility age and expand Medicare benefits to include areas such as dental. If healthcare is expanded under these acts, millions more Americans will be taking out healthcare insurance. Companies such as UnitedHealthcare and Cigna could therefore be in line for an enormous windfall as their customer bases mushroom. But it's not all good news for the industry. As part of his plan to lower costs, the new POTUS wants to create a public health insurance option that will compete with private insurers. If take-up of the option is widespread, these companies could see their respective turnovers and profits heavily impacted.
Winner: Hospitals
But an expansion of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could be a godsend for hospitals. With more Americans covered, the nation's healthcare facilities will be able to fill more beds and carry out a larger number of consultations and procedures, inflating revenues and profits. On the flipside, the Biden administration has promised to break up powerful hospital monopolies, vowing to “aggressively use its existing antitrust authority to address this problem”.
Winner: Pharmaceuticals
The US pharmaceuticals industry stands to gain from the Biden administration's COVID policies and potential expansion of Affordable Care Act (ACA) as considerably more scripts are likely to be filled, but it's not all sunshine and rainbows for the healthcare sub-sector. Like his predecessor, President Biden is strongly committed to lowering drug prices and has set out several ways this will be achieved, from linking price increases to inflation and giving patients the all-clear to buy drugs from overseas.
Mixed: Airlines
The Biden administration recently revealed surprise plans to provide airlines and contractors with a $15 billion lifeline, of which the majority has been given to support payroll costs. This, together with the new government's handling of the pandemic, have been applauded by the aviation industry, as have the president's plan to overhaul airport infrastructure in the US and help green the sector. Nevertheless, the new POTUS has also said he will improve America's rail network under the $2 trillion infrastructure plan, which may end up reducing air passenger numbers and harming domestic aviation.
Mixed: Firearms
A passionate advocate of gun control, President Biden has drawn the ire of the firearms industry for his call to bring in background checks on all gun sales, ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, and make gunmakers and retailers liable for the misuse of the firearms they manufacture and sell. In the short-term, however, the sector is cashing in, with sales of guns and ammo booming as firearms enthusiasts anticipating stricter regulations stock up.
Mixed: Agriculture
The Biden administration is shaping up to be a mixed bag for US agriculture. While the sector would benefit from a softening of the trade war with China and proposals that include paying farmers to leave land fallow to help fight climate change, the new government's proposed tax changes and increased regulation will no doubt eat into revenues and profits.
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Mixed: Finance
Having been treated to tax cuts and rampant deregulation under President Trump, the finance industry is experiencing a rude awakening under his successor. Though Biden's latest proposed $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus plan was welcomed by financial markets, the new POTUS has vowed to reverse the Trump tax cuts for the country's richest and strengthen policing of the sector, and a number of his policies, including the creation of a taxpayer-funded postal bank, are vehemently opposed by Wall Street.
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Mixed: Restaurants
The Biden administration is turning out to be something of a double-edged sword for the restaurant sector as well. On the one hand, the industry is benefiting from the new administration's generous COVID relief fund and more adept handling of the pandemic. Biden's proposed increase in the minimum wage to $15 an hour would have battered the sector's bottom line and potentially resulted in job losses if it had remained as part of the relief fund but this element didn't remain in the final bill.
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Mixed: Hotels
America's hoteliers have been thrown a lifeline by the president, who is generously propping up the travel industry as part of his administration's COVID stimulus package, along with expediting the industry's recovery by doubling down on vaccination and other anti-COVID efforts. That said, if President Biden's proposal to eliminate a widely-used real estate tax break comes to pass.
Mixed: Commercial real estate
This real estate tax break, the 1031 exchange, enables hotels and other organizations to defer capital gains and other taxes on properties they purchase, and getting rid of it won't do the commercial real estate industry any favors, rubbing salt in the wounds of a sector badly hit by COVID and the work from home revolution. On the bright side, the president's infrastructure and green drive should offer the industry myriad lucrative opportunities.
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Mixed: Residential real estate
The residential real estate sector has proved a lot more resilient during the pandemic, with home prices remaining buoyant and demand strong, helped along by record low interest rates. Biden policies that will impact the industry most include the proposed $15,000 tax break for first-time buyers and $100 billion 'Affordable Housing Fund', which will increase the number of low-income housing units and help alleviate the market's supply issues.
Mixed: Retail
The Biden administration's increased stimulus cash, coupled with other factors such as the 'Buy American' policy and speedy rollout of the vaccination program, should all work wonders on the flagging retail industry. The minimum wage hike could have been problematic, but even if it had gone ahead its supporters insisted that the additional business this and the stimulus would have generated by putting more money in the pockets of ordinary Americans would have comfortably offset the associated costs.
Mixed: Gambling and gaming
Cautiously optimistic about the Biden presidency, the gambling and gaming industry is likely to be happy about the president's tacit support of online gambling, having expressed his opposition to the Trump administration's decision to take a harder line on the 1961 Federal Wire Act, which would have posed a threat to internet gambling in the US.
Mixed: Automotive
The Biden administration wants half of new vehicles sold to be electric by 2030 and is going all out to make this happen with incentive after incentive to persuade people to swap their gas guzzler for an EV. As a consequence, firms such as Tesla are likely to clean up in the coming years, while traditional automakers who have yet to fully embrace electric will find the transition challenging and expensive.
Mixed: Technology
America's technology industry is set to get a boost from President's Biden infrastructure drive – the government is set to spend billions to expand the broadband network – not to mention the 5G rollout, and the new commander in chief is largely supportive of the sector. But the 46th president, who loathes powerful monopolies, has been scathing in his criticism of Silicon Valley, even going as far as to call Mark Zuckerberg “a real problem" over Facebook's political advertising policies. An anti-trust reckoning that could lead to the break-up of a tech titan or two might very well be coming.
Loser: Corporate lobbying
In a bid to improve ethics in the nation's capital, President Biden has toughened up rules surrounding corporate lobbying and placed restrictions on ex-lobbyists serving in his government. Former officials are now prohibited from lobbying senior White House officials for a period of two years after they leave the administration, and questionable 'shadow lobbying' has been outlawed.
Loser: Private prisons
The controversial private prison sector thrived under the Trump administration and industry bosses showed their appreciation by making vast donations to the then-president's unsuccessful 2020 campaign. Their animosity to a Biden administration turned out to be well-founded. In January, the president signed an executive order banning federal contracts with private prisons, whose days could now be numbered.
Loser: Coal
While mining companies that extract minerals essential for the green transition are almost guaranteed to flourish under Biden, the coal industry is likely to see further decline as the country eschews fossil fuels. Be that as it may, coal was left out when the president banned the sale of leases permitting the extraction of oil and gas on federal land. And on the upside, the new POTUS has vowed to reclaim abandoned mines and create jobs in America's forgotten coal mining communities.
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Loser: Oil and natural gas
The oil and natural gas industry, particularly the shale energy sub-sector, is set to be the biggest loser under the green-focused Biden administration. While the president has stopped short of banning fracking, he has canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, rejoined the Paris Climate Agreement and, as previously mentioned, suspended oil and gas leasing on federal land and waters. This succession of moves has “stunned” the industry according to Fortune and left it fearing for its future.
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