Markets were a little calmer today as gilt yields continue to fall back after Jeremy Hunt’s emergency measures yesterday. The Bank of England also announced this afternoon that pension funds which had been destabilised by the huge rise in gilt yields last week were now looking healthier. The FTSE 100 index edged up 0.24% to 6936.74 while the mid-cap FTSE 250 index was up 0.15% at 17,529.
Read on for today's biggest market movers.
Shares in Lookers (LOOK) have soared 16% to 82.7p after the car dealer announced a very positive third-quarter update. The company now expects to make £75 million in underlying profit this year – better than previous guidance – and it’s also going to spend £15 million on a share buyback programme. A company buying its own shares is always a sign of confidence, even more so at this time in the economic cycle. What’s more, Lookers has a strong balance sheet: the value of its cash holdings plus property works at 98p a share, well ahead of the current share price.
So there’s plenty of good news here but, if the economy heads into full-blown recession, Lookers will suffer. Car dealers always do. You could argue that fears of a recession are already in the share price – Lookers is trading on only five times profits – but profits can decline dramatically in bad times. If you buy shares in Lookers, you’re placing a bet on the quality of Lookers as a business. And you’re placing a bigger bet that the economic slowdown of 2023 won’t be too horrendous.
The cost of living crisis is bad news for most of us, but it’s boosted performance at MoneySuperMarket (MONY). When times are tough, we’re more likely to take the time to do a web search for the best credit card or home insurance policy. As a result, third quarter revenues at the price comparison site have jumped by a third to £102 million. What’s more, the company says that the annual numbers will be at the top end of current expectations. The share price is up 4.5% at 207.4p.
If you’re thinking about buying shares in MoneySuperMarket, don’t just focus on today’s good news. There’s an attractive long-term story here as well. Until the pandemic, MoneySuperMarket had a good track record of increasing profits year after year and it looks like that trend is kicking in again. On top of that, there’s a 5% yield. Growth and a decent yield is an attractive combination.
Card Factory (CARD) is a rather old-fashioned business. It sells greeting cards mainly through shops. It has an online business but it’s relatively small. You might think that demand for traditional cards would be falling but, apart from the pandemic blip, that doesn’t appear to be the case and the shares trade on a multiple of five times earnings. It looks like some investors have come out bargain hunting today and the shares have soared 12% to 47.65p.
Shares in Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) were hammered during the pandemic as most of us stopped flying. Demand for Rolls-Royce plane engines fell and, more importantly, Rolls-Royce received much less revenue for servicing engines while planes stayed on the ground. As plane travel has picked up, so performance at Rolls-Royce has also started to improve – the company is expected to make a small profit this year.
The share price has almost halved this year, so you can understand why some investors are buying, pushing up the share price by 4% to 74.5p today. Just be aware that the company still has a hefty debt pile – over £5 billion. That’s a chunky sum for a business that is only expected to make a pre-tax profit of £68 million this year.
ASOS (ASC) shares fell for the second day running after Cannacord Genuity initiated coverage with a ‘sell’ rating and a price target of 409p. This negative rating followed bad news yesterday when we learned that ASOS was renegotiating the terms of its debt covenants with lenders. The share price closed at 490p, down 5.4%
Only four years ago, ASOS was a stock market star that had benefitted hugely from the rise of online shopping. Four years on, the shares have fallen by more than 90% and bargain hunters may be tempted to pick up shares on the basis that ASOS still has a strong brand and significant delivery infrastructure. What’s more, the shares look cheap at first glance. But yesterday’s news about the debt covenants is worrying and suggests the company is struggling. So ASOS is probably best avoided.
Bellway (BWY) reported strong annual results but shares in the housebuilder fell nonetheless. The problem is that Bellway says demand has slowed down since the summer and that will affect results for this year.
The good news is that revenue jumped 13% to £3.5 billion in the year to 31 July. The bad news is that new property reservations have fallen 13% since August. Bellway’s shares are down 2.2% at £17.86, and several other housebuilders fell today including Barratt Developments (BDEV), down 1.5% at 353.5p.
Looking at the sector as a whole, the worry is that house prices are probably going to fall. Granted, Jeremy Hunt’s emergency measures have calmed the gilt market somewhat (and hence mortgage rates), but we’re not going back to where we were before Liz Truss became Prime Minister. Mortgage rates will remain higher than we’re used to, and that’s bad news for property values. Capital Economics is forecasting that house prices will fall 12% by mid-2024. If that forecast is accurate, now isn’t the time to buy into this sector.
Shares in the fund manager Ninety One (N91) were down after the fund manager said that assets under management were £132.3 billion, down from £143.9 billion at the end of March. It looks like markets will remain choppy for a while yet, so we could see further falls to come in assets here. The share price closed almost 5% down at 177.7p.
Syncona (SYNC) is a big faller today, down 8% at 166p. It’s an investment trust that invests in life sciences firms. A lot of its investments are not listed on public stock markets. The value of unlisted investments may fall more in a bear market than listed investments as it’s more difficult to sell the unlisted assets. Worries about that may explain some of today’s fall.
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