Bellway (BWY) reported strong annual results but shares in the housebuilder fell nonetheless. The problem is that Bellway says demand has slowed down since the summer and that will affect results for this year.
The good news is that revenue jumped 13% to £3.5 billion in the year to 31 July. The bad news is that new property reservations have fallen 13% since August. Bellway’s shares are down 2.2% at £17.86, and several other housebuilders fell today including Barratt Developments (BDEV), down 1.5% at 353.5p.
Looking at the sector as a whole, the worry is that house prices are probably going to fall. Granted, Jeremy Hunt’s emergency measures have calmed the gilt market somewhat (and hence mortgage rates), but we’re not going back to where we were before Liz Truss became Prime Minister. Mortgage rates will remain higher than we’re used to, and that’s bad news for property values. Capital Economics is forecasting that house prices will fall 12% by mid-2024. If that forecast is accurate, now isn’t the time to buy into this sector.