Today’s big news was the hotter than expected UK inflation numbers. Consumer prices rose 10.1% over the last year – higher food prices were a big contributor to that rise. Later in the day the dollar started to rise as US government bond yields rose to 19-year highs.
The FTSE 100 initially fell on the inflation news, but investors became more relaxed as the day wore on and the FTSE 100 closed down a minuscule 11 points at 6924.99. The FTSE 250 fell by much more, down 1.6% at 17,247.55.
Read on to find out why ASOS shares soared 12% even though the company reported a loss. And why Moneysupermarket crashed on concerns that Amazon might eat its lunch.
Fashion retailer ASOS (ASC) announced a £32 million loss for the year to August but the shares rose 12% to 550p nonetheless. The loss follows a £177 million profit for the previous year. ASOS also warned that it expected to make a loss in the first six months of this year.
So why has the share price gone up?
The most important reason is probably that the recently appointed CEO Jose Antonio Ramos Calamonte reassured the markets there would be no need to issue new shares. ASOS had admitted on Monday that it was renegotiating the terms of its debt covenants with lenders and that triggered speculation that the company could end up in a cash crisis. Such a crisis might force ASOS to raise cash by issuing fresh shares.
Investors were also impressed today that Calamonte announced a clear strategy to reverse the recent poor performance. He announced plans to deal with supply chain problems, refresh the fashion ranges and update the culture of the company. He also said that there would be further price cuts to clear stock. What’s more, he’s reviewing the performance of the international markets and it’s possible that ASOS might stop operations in one or more territories. It’s worth noting that overall sales grew 1% last year, but UK sales rose 7%.
Calamonte said all the right things today and there’s a good chance he will succeed. However, financing remains a worry. In August 2021, ASOS had a net cash holding of £200 million, but a year later that has become a net debt position of £155 million. That trend has to slow down at the very least. If it doesn’t, a further share issue could still be on the agenda regardless of Calamonte’s reassuring words.
Shares in International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) closed up 2.1% today at 118.3p. This was on the back of news that British Airways, which is owned by IAG, has reached a pay deal with the pilots’ union BALPA. The deal still has to be approved by pilots but the chances of industrial action at BA are now much lower.
RHI Magnesita (RHIM) said this morning that trading was going well and its shares are up 6% at £17.19. The company makes ‘refractory products’ that are used in the production of things like steel and concrete.
RHI admitted that its European business has suffered in the last three months, but strong performance in India and the US means that third quarter numbers should be at least in line with current market expectations.
BP (BP) has had a good day, rising 2% to 454.3p. A weaker pound is good news for a company like BP that earns most of its revenue in dollars. A stronger dollar means that, when that revenue is converted to sterling, profits and revenue are boosted. As the oil price has risen, so has BP’s share price, up 30% this year.
Assets under management at Quilter (QLT) fell 2% in the last quarter and the news has pushed the share price down by almost 6% to 87.8p.
Quilter is a FTSE 250 company with a £1.2 billion market cap. It employs financial advisers and planners who help clients make financial decisions. Quilter also has a financial platform business which smaller IFA (Independent Financial Adviser) businesses can use. In other words, it provides technology to smaller players.
Quilter says that today’s fall was caused by the ‘challenging backdrop’ of volatility in bond and stock markets.
Shares in MoneysuperMarket (MONY) have tumbled 14% to 179p after Amazon announced it was launching an insurance comparison portal called Amazon Insurance Store. The store is being offered to select customers from today and it will be available to everyone in the UK by the end of the year. The portal will initially offer home and buildings insurance, but there’s clear scope for expansion here.
Investors understandably see the move as a major threat to MoneySuperMarket and they may be right. But success for Amazon is not a 100% certainty. Another tech giant tried to become a major player in the UK comparison sector but gave up. The Google Compare service closed in 2016.
And don’t forget that Amazon has had a fair number of business failures or struggles over the years. For example, Amazon has stopped opening any more Amazon Fresh convenience stores in the UK, presumably because the business isn’t performing as well as hoped. Remember also that MoneySuperMarket has been ‘doing’ price comparison for over 20 years in the UK and has a strong brand. So it’s not going to roll over and give up.
Before the Amazon news came out, Stifel downgraded MoneySuperMarket from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ on worries about higher interest rates hitting growth at the business.
The Financial Times reported last night that Jeremy Hunt was considering imposing extra tax on bank profits and that’s hit bank share prices across the board. Lloyds (LLOY) is the biggest faller, down 4.5% at 40.7p, while Barclays (BARC) is down 2% at 144.3p, and Natwest (NWG) is down 2.8% at 230p.
The UK already imposes a levy on bank balance sheets as well as an 8% surcharge on bank profits. (That surcharge is on top of corporation tax.) The current plan is to cut the surcharge to 3% next year, but Hunt may be tempted to reverse that cut as he desperately looks to boost the government’s coffers.
Rising interest rates are a mixed blessing for Lloyds and its rivals. On the downside, higher interest rates should increase the number of mortgage borrowers who default on their debt. On the plus side, higher rates should boost the spread between the interest it charges lenders and the interest it pays out to savers. That should boost profits. Looking specifically at Lloyds, the bank is currently paying out a 6% dividend yield. That looks attractive, but that dividend could be history if the mortgage market gets into serious trouble or if there’s some unknown ‘nasty’ on the Lloyds balance sheet that most investors haven’t clocked yet.
Pub company JD Wetherspoon (JDW) has been hit by an analyst downgrade. HSBC has cut its price target on the stock from 880p to 720p, and the share price closed well below that price target at 440p, down 2.6%. Today’s fall follows a 50% decline over the last year.
Wetherspoons was prospering in 2019, but then came the pandemic. As the company has tried to recover, it’s suffered thanks to weakening consumer demand and rising wages in the hospitality sector. The good news is that the company moved back into profit in its recent results statement. The bad news is that Wetherspoons is weighed down by a hefty pile. Looking ahead, Wetherspoons is hoping that drinkers will leave their existing more expensive pubs and buy cheaper drinks at Wetherspoons instead. That may happen. Or Wetherspoons' existing customers may decide that even Wetherspoons’ lower prices are unaffordable and drink at home.
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