Poor results from Amazon overnight hit sentiment this morning and the FTSE 100 was down over 1% in early trading. Disappointing results from NatWest (see later) didn’t help. However, some stronger figures on US consumer spending provided some reassurance and the FTSE 100 ended the day only 0.37% down at 7,047. The FTSE 250 was 0.9% down at 17,916.
The pound continued its week-long rise, gaining a further 0.2% to reach almost $1.16.
In the movers today we look at how ASOS has been hit by Amazon’s weak numbers, and we consider two pieces of good news for drugs giant GSK.
Energy company Centrica (CNA) has reopened its Rough gas storage site off the Yorkshire coast. Centrica’s share price has jumped 5.3% to 73.3p as a result. Centrica, which owns British Gas, stopped using the site for storage in 2017 because the site was apparently uneconomic. Thanks to the Ukraine war, gas storage is now highly prized, hence the site opening.
Sadly, Centrica can only reopen the site for storage at about 20% of capacity, so it’s not the cure for all our energy problems this winter. CEO Chris O’Shea said the facility should be able to provide heat for a million homes for more than 100 days. It should also help to smooth out fluctuations in the gas price over the winter.
Drugs giant GSK (GSK) received good news on two vaccines it’s developing today. The first is for a vaccine for RSV. RSV is a respiratory infection that is no worse than a common cold in some people, but more serious in others. Currently, there is no vaccine for RSV, so news that the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has started its final assessment on GSK’s vaccine is very welcome.
The EMA will probably make a decision on the vaccine in the second quarter of next year, and analysts at Berenberg reckon that the global market for RSV vaccines could be worth as much as $5 billion a year. (Other pharma firms are working on rival vaccines, but GSK is currently in the lead.) The EMA has also started a review of an HIV vaccine called cabotegravir. This vaccine has already been approved and launched in the US.
Today’s positive news is very welcome for GSK, as the firm had several pieces of negative news about its pipeline earlier in the week. That’s the nature of big pharma investing: there are inevitable failures in the development process, you just have to hope that a company will have some big winners along the way. GSK’s share price closed 2.1% up at £14.18.
Avacta (AVCT) is the biggest riser in the AIM-100 index today. (These are the larger companies on Aim). The share price has risen 6.6% today to 119.45p. That’s significantly higher than when Avacta raised cash earlier this month at 95p a share.
Avacta is a small biotech that is developing both treatments and diagnostic tests. The company clearly has its fans but it’s worth stressing that the drugs side of business is very early stage. In other words, it has just one drug in clinical (human) trials, and that’s only in Phase 1. Analysts normally say that a drug in Phase 1 has a 10% chance of reaching the market and are often reluctant to ascribe any value to a drug at that point. Remember also that, even if a Phase 1 drug is successful, it’ll be some years before it reaches the market, and large amounts of cash will be needed to take the drug through the development process.
So Avacta is a high-risk investment even if holders are enjoying today’s share price rise.
Airtel Africa (AAF) reported pretty good results yesterday but the shares fell 15%. We were a little surprised by the fall, and said it was ‘overdone’. It seems some investors agreed with us and the share price has moved back up today by 5.8% to 114.1p.
Airtel is the second largest telecoms operator in Africa and it’s the number one or number two operator in all 14 countries where it operates. It’s invested heavily in infrastructure, so it should be well-placed to succeed in a continent with plenty of growth potential. On the downside, there have been concerns about some countries possibly imposing caps on dividends being paid to overseas investors. Also, this is an emerging markets business – some investors prefer to cut their exposure to emerging markets when times are tough. Still, today’s rise seems fair.
NatWest (NWG) reported lower than expected profits this morning and the shares are down 9.4% to 224p as a result. City analysts had expected third quarter pre-tax profits to come in at £1.2 billion but the actual figure was lower at £1.1 billion. What’s more, NatWest set aside £247 million for bad loans, which was roughly £70 million higher than expected. CEO Alison Rose was nervous about prospects for 2023: she said she was "conscious of the growing concerns of our customers". She also warned that inflation meant costs would rise next year.
To be fair, it’s not all bad news at NatWest. Rising interest rates have boosted the net interest margin (the difference between loan and savings rates), and profits are higher than 2021, even if they’re lower than forecast. The shares also had a boost in the summer when the bank paid a chunky £1.75 billion special dividend. A decent 14.1p dividend is expected for next year. If NatWest can deliver on that forecast, it puts the bank on a dividend yield of over 6%. Way better than a savings account! The uncertainty is around one simple issue: how carefully has NatWest chosen its borrowers in the good times? We’ll know in a year.
Shares in ASOS (ASC) have been on the up for most of this week following news that Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group (FRAS) had built a 5% stake. Bulls are hoping for a nice takeover bid. However, the shares went into reverse today after Amazon warned that consumers were being more careful with their cash. If there’s a direct read-across from Amazon, and that’s a real ‘if’, ASOS won’t have a great Christmas. The share price tumbled 11% to 573p.
Computacenter (CCC) warned today there would be ‘modest’ profit growth this year following two ‘exceptional’ years for the technology services company. The warning pushed the share price down 4.2% to £18.27.
Computacenter said that the lower profits were partly due to increased investment, especially in cybersecurity. The firm has also been hit by supply chain issues, which mean that inventories are much higher than they were a year ago.
Greatland Gold (GGP) is a gold and copper explorer with a 30% stake in the Havieron prospect in Western Australia. The shares are down 5.2% today to 8.2p after full-year results. That’s in spite of good news coming out of Havieron. Greatland said this week that two further ‘high grade intercepts’ had been discovered in the licence area. In other words, gold and/or copper has been found at two new places. The directors are also positive about progress at some other earlier stage projects where Greatland is exploring.
As for the results, there’s no revenue to report as Greatland isn’t producing anything yet, so today’s focus is on financial strength. Greatland had a little over £10 million in cash at the end of the financial year in June. Since then the company has raised £195 million from a mix of share issues and loans. So it doesn’t look like Greatland is going to run out of cash in the near future. If things go well, Havieron will start production in 2024, so investors will now be looking for further upgrades on the amount of gold and copper in the prospect. The share price could start to motor if Greatland got lucky and found another prospect with real commercial potential amongst its current early-stage projects.
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