The Times reported this morning that IAG (IAG), the owner of British Airways, is considering buying another airline and easyJet (EZJ) or Portugal’s TAP are the most likely candidates. As a result, easyJet’s shares closed 6.1% higher at 348p.
So why might IAG want to buy easyJet?
The main rationale is that the growth of video meetings means business travel may never return to pre-pandemic levels. Leisure travel will probably be more resilient. British Airways is very much weighted to business travel; easyJet is the reverse. You could also argue that easyJet looks cheap. It trades on a multiple of 12 times forecast earnings for next year and the balance sheet is in pretty good shape. That said, don’t assume that a takeover bid is a sure thing. Far from it. Very often, mooted bids never happen, and even if IAG does decide to buy another player, it could go for TAP or perhaps Wizz Air (WIZZ), up 6.9% at £17.22.
Shares in IAG also rose today, climbing 5.4% to 121.5p. The rise is a little odd. History tells us that takeover bids often work out badly for the buyer. Often bids are driven by the egos of CEOs who pay too high a price and then struggle to successfully integrate the two companies. What’s more, IAG already carries a lot of debt, so a purchase could trigger a fresh share issue to fund the acquisition. If IAG funded the takeover with debt, the balance sheet could get very stretched.