Ever wondered which countries are really calling the shots on the international stage? Look no further than the Great Powers Index 2024. Compiled by billionaire investor Ray Dalio, who founded the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, this comprehensive ranking measures a wide range of factors – including economic output, military prowess, technological innovation, and reserve currency status – to evaluate the leading 24 countries today and their prospects over the next decade.

Read on to discover the major players in 2024 and find out what could be in store for them over the next 10 years. 

All dollar amounts in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Top Connecticut-based investor Ray Dalio (pictured), who's worth a tidy $14 billion (£10.5bn), unveiled the Country Power Score Index – the precursor to the Great Powers Index – at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos in 2022.

A system for scoring the relative power of the world's 24 leading nations, this year's index assesses eight key measures of power: education; innovation and technology; competitiveness; military; trade; economic output; financial centre, and reserve currency status.

Six additional measures of power – including infrastructure and investment and governance and rule of law – are also assessed. The index takes into account each nation's level of happiness and health too. Based on all these elements, a total strength gauge score of between 0 and 1 is then awarded, along with a per capita (or per person) score. Finally, it provides real growth estimates for the next 10 years, an important forecast of what the future might hold for each country.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the 24 economies covered by the index...

Despite President Javier Millei's recent reforms, Argentina is the weakest of the major economies, with a strength gauge score of just 0.07 and a per capita score of only 0.14. Key shortcomings include the South American nation's limited importance as a global financial centre, its weak military, substandard education system, minor role in global trade, and poor performance in innovation and technology.

Corruption, inconsistent rule of law, neglected infrastructure, and inefficient allocation of labour and capital all further hinder its global influence. Other negatives include the country's high debt burden and low income growth for the bottom 60% of the population.

On a more positive note, the nation scores comparatively well in terms of health and happiness.

Over the next 10 years, Argentina's real growth rate is expected to be 2%, which is about average for the world's leading economies. The figure will be driven chiefly by productivity, which is projected to grow on a par with the global average.

Argentina's relative strengths include its growing workforce, while its biggest weaknesses are monetary policy, debt and debt service levels.

In 2024, South Africa isn't a global power to be reckoned with, primarily due to weaknesses in education, innovation, technology, and its military. The Rainbow Nation has a strength gauge score of 0.1 and a per capita score of 0.12, the second lowest among the 24 economies covered by the index. While the country's economic and financial cycles are somewhat favourable, its overall power has remained relatively stagnant in recent decades.

Inequality is a significant concern in South Africa, and the gap between rich and poor is cavernous. The country also faces stark challenges in areas such as health and safety, with violent crime a huge problem.

South Africa's projected real growth rate over the next 10 years is 2.9%, which is above the global average. This is forecast to be fuelled largely by productivity and labour force growth, though an uptick in commodity exports could make for a considerably better figure.

In terms of strengths and weaknesses, South Africa mirrors Argentina. Its major positives include its mushrooming workforce and the value its workers provide relative to education levels, while debt is the biggest area of concern.

Mexico's strength gauge score is 0.14, while its per capita figure is only slightly better at 0.15. This is due to weaknesses in education, innovation and technology, and the nation's relative insignificance as a global financial centre.

On the upside, the index highlights the self-sufficiency of Mexican workers, low income inequality (especially when compared to South Africa) and comparatively high levels of happiness.

Over the next 10 years, Mexico is expected to record real growth of 2.5%, marginally above the global average.

This growth will be underpinned by productivity and labour force growth. However, while Mexico has strengths in workforce value and debt management, it faces challenges when it comes to monetary policy and innovation.

Saudi Arabia's global power is limited, with a strength gauge score of 0.15, though its per capita figure is much higher at 0.45, putting it on a par with France in this respect. The low strength gauge score is primarily due to the country's small size, poor education system, and limited innovation. Despite these challenges, Saudi Arabia possesses strengths in its economy and global financial position.

Other positives include the nation's relatively low debt levels.

The future forecast for Saudi Arabia is glowing, and the country is projected to have a real growth rate of 4.6% over the next 10 years, significantly exceeding the global average. In fact, this is the third-best growth prediction figure of the 24 economies included in the index.

Saudi Arabia is in much the same boat as Mexico, with strengths in debt management and workforce growth and weaknesses in monetary policy and innovation.

Spain is the joint 17th strongest nation, garnering a strength gauge score of 0.17. Its per capita figure of 0.34 is the second lowest among the European economies covered by the index.

Spain's global power isn't too potent today due to its weak economy, unfavourable financial position, and low innovation score. While the nation has strengths in areas like social wellbeing and healthcare, its reliance on the euro and challenges in innovation hinder its overall influence.

Unfortunately, Spain's forecast isn't bright. Its projected real growth rate over the next 10 years is 0.3%, well below the global average.

This anaemic growth forecast is attributed to factors including a declining workforce and challenges in productivity and indebtedness. Spain's strengths include its rule of law and reduced reliance on credit flows, but its high debt levels and shrinking workforce pose significant challenges to its future economic performance.

Italy's strength gauge score is equal to Spain's at 0.17 but its per capita score is worse at 0.31, the lowest among the European economies featured in the index.

According to Dalio, Italy is a nation in slow decline and isn't a meaningful global power. Despite its strengths in social wellbeing and healthcare, Italy faces significant obstacles, including an unfavourable financial position, pervasive corruption, inconsistent rule of law, and inefficient allocation of labour and capital. These factors have contributed to its declining influence on the global stage.

That decline looks set to continue, with Italy's projected real growth rate over the next 10 years at -0.5%, the joint worst figure among the world's leading economies.

This negative growth forecast is attributed to a declining workforce (Italy has one of the lowest birth rates and fastest ageing populations globally) and challenges in productivity and indebtedness. These factors could weigh heavily on the country's growth prospects, despite its reduced reliance on credit flows and the value of its workforce relative to education levels.

Indonesia has a strength gauge score of 0.17, identical to that of Spain and Italy, but its per capita figure of 0.13 is the third worst in the index.

The nation is a rising albeit minor global power with a sound financial and economic position and cost-competitive labour force, which the index praises for its self-sufficiency and industriousness. But the Southeast Asian country falls short when it comes to education, innovation and technology, global trade, and governance.

On the flipside, Indonesia's real growth rate over the next 10 years is projected at a substantial 5.5%. Only one other nation in the index is expected to record a higher figure.

By and large, Dalio credits this excellent growth rate prediction to the country's expected increase in productivity, which is forecast to outshine most major countries. Other pluses include Indonesia's relatively healthy levels of investment and the value its workers provide relative to their education level. The nation's monetary policy and dependence on credit flows for growth are potential downsides.

The Netherlands shares the same strength gauge score and ranking as Indonesia, Italy, and Spain. Its per capita score is a very respectable 0.55%, the second highest among the European countries included in the index.

The nation excels in terms of its high internal order, rock-solid rule of law, low levels of corruption, and comparatively modest debt. Downsides include the relatively weak Dutch military, the country's small economy, and its expensive labour.

The Netherlands' projected real growth rate over the next 10 years is 1.2%, slightly below the global average.

The nation's key growth strengths include its innovation and commercialism. However, rising debt poses the country's biggest challenge to sustained economic growth.

The world's 16th strongest nation, Brazil has a strength gauge score of 0.18 but its per capita rating is lower at 0.14, which is the same as Argentina's.

Brazil's global power is constrained, primarily due to its weaknesses in education, innovation and technology, and its comparatively minor role in global trade. Although the nation is blessed with bountiful natural resources and a relatively strong economy, these strengths are counterbalanced by challenges in governance, infrastructure, and social inequality.

Brazil's real growth rate over the coming 10 years is projected at 1.7%. This is around the global average but below average for an emerging economy, among which Brazil has the worst forecast.

Brazil's pluses include the value of its workers relative to their educational attainment and the nation's decent investment levels. The most glaring negatives are its monetary policy and debt.

Switzerland's strength gauge score is 0.19, but its per capita score is the best in Europe and the third highest of the nations included in the index, at an impressive 0.66.

Less positively, Switzerland is a small country with a weak military despite its famed affluence. Its importance as a global financial centre, its competitiveness, and its share of global output are all in decline, according to the index, and the country's expensive labour force has also been highlighted by Dalio. The saving graces are Switzerland's low level of corruption and strong rule of law.

Switzerland's real growth rate over the 10 years is forecast at a lacklustre 0.2%.

The country's key strengths include its innovative and commercial spirit, along with its bureaucratic efficiency. Meanwhile, major challenges include inadequate returns on investment in education and high debt levels, though these are largely offset by the rich nation's stock of assets such as its ample FX reserves and sovereign wealth fund.

Canada's strength gauge score of 0.21 and per capita rating of 0.5 place it in the modest power category, according to Dalio.

Highlighted strengths include healthcare and a comparatively narrow gap between rich and poor. But as a global power player, Canada is hampered by its relatively compact economy, weak military, limited infrastructure, and modest levels of investment.

Canada's real growth is expected to be 1.2% over the coming 10 years, which is below the global average.

The country's comparative strengths are its level of bureaucracy and the value its workers provide relative to their educational attainment. That said, productivity requires improvement, while the country's debt and debt service levels could limit growth.

Türkiye's strength gauge score is 0.21, with a per capita equivalent of 0.28, indicating a modest level of international power.

A country in gradual ascent, as the index puts it, Türkiye's standout strength is the low cost of its labour. Additional pros include its relatively low debt levels. Key constraints to the nation's global power are its insignificance as a global financial centre, mediocre education system, small share of international trade, and corruption levels.

On the bright side, Türkiye's real growth rate over the next 10 years is forecast at 4%, which is markedly above the global average.

Productivity, which is predicted to grow at a much higher rate than that of most countries, is at the heart of this optimistic prediction, supported by other factors such as high levels of investment.

A modest power on a flat trajectory, Australia's strength gauge score is 0.24, though the nation's per capita score is a lot better at 0.56.

Abundant natural resources are the country's biggest strength. On the other hand, factors such as its comparatively small economy, low investment, and limited infrastructure are key power impediments. Like Canada, Australia is a huge country with a relatively small population, so its infrastructure is rated poor due to its scope rather than its quality.

Australia's real growth rate prediction for the coming 10 years is in line with the global average at 2.1%.

This growth is expected to be driven by gains in productivity and its labour force. Monetary policy and reduced dependence on credit flows will help propel the growth, while debt levels represent the main challenge to the country's future economic wellbeing.

Singapore is considered a modest power in gradual ascent. Its strength gauge score is 0.24. However, the tiny city-state punches well above its weight given its per capita score of 0.89, which is the highest in the world.

Singapore's core strengths include its people's resilience and industriousness, its robust legal framework and low corruption, and its efficient resource management. Weaknesses range from the country's limited military capabilities and small economy to its scarcity of natural resources. But in terms of quality over quantity, no nation does it better.

Singapore's projected real growth rate over the next 10 years is 2.6%, above the global average.

Productivity and labour force growth will be the key drivers. Major strengths include the city-state's bureaucracy and workforce value, with monetary policy and debt the principal weaknesses. As is the case with Switzerland, Singapore's bulging stock of assets offset its debt issues to a large extent.

Despite President Putin's posturing, Russia is a modest power on a flat trajectory. Its strength gauge score is a decent 0.26, but its per capita rating is lower than many similar economies at 0.28.

Russia is rich in natural resources and has a relatively strong military. However, the country's internal conflicts, insignificance as a global financial centre, rampant corruption, poor infrastructure, and lack of investment are major cons. Its illegal invasion of Ukraine has severely damaged the domestic economy and Russia's international standing.

Russia's real growth forecast for the next 10 years of 2.9% comes with a slew of caveats.

The figure doesn't take into account unexpected external shocks, which could come in the form of an intensification of the war in Ukraine, natural disasters, and commodity shocks. Given the importance of oil and gas to the Russian economy, the real growth forecast may need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

France has a strength gauge score of 0.27, while the nation's per capita score comes in at 0.45, which is higher than the Eurozone average.

France's global power is limited due to its less-than-favourable economic/financial position. On top of this, the workforce is expensive, offering relatively little value. Positives include the country's social wellbeing, exceptional healthcare system, and comparatively narrow gap between rich and poor.

Over the next 10 years, France is expected to record real growth of 0.9%, considerably lower than the global average, but nothing particularly special for a European economy.

In terms of strengths, France scores well for its level of bureaucracy and rule of law. But the country has plenty of headwinds to contend with, most notably its high debt levels and issues surrounding the productivity of its workforce.

A global power on a flat trajectory, the UK has a strength gauge score of 0.29 and a per capita rating of 0.46, which beats the Eurozone average but trails that of Switzerland.

Stumbling blocks to the UK's superpower status are its unfavourable economic/financial position, paucity of natural resources, and comparatively expensive labour, coupled with poor infrastructure resulting from years of underinvestment. However, the UK is rated highly for health and has the best happiness rating as per the index, though this doesn't tally with many alternative surveys which rate Britain's quality of life comparatively poorly.

Looking ahead, the UK's real growth rate over the next 10 years is projected at 1.3%, which is below the global average but higher than the prediction for the Eurozone.

Echoing France, the UK's primary strengths are its level of bureaucracy and rule of law, while its key weaknesses are the country's high debt levels and monetary policy.

A power in ascent, India's strength gauge score is slightly higher than the UK's at 0.3, but its per capita score is the lowest among the countries featured in the index at 0.07.

India's standout strengths include its resilient economy and financial stability, cost-competitive labour force, and its people's self-reliance. However, the world's most populous nation has many limitations to overcome, including its rudimentary innovation and technological reach, widespread corruption, inconsistent rule of law, and lack of reserve currency status. Additionally, the wide gap between rich and poor presents a major hurdle.

Fortunately, India's real growth forecast over the next 10 years is the best in the index at a stellar 6.3%.

The country's high levels of investment and the industriousness of its workforce are its major pluses. In terms of negatives, the nation's debt and debt service levels, together with its dependence on credit flows for growth, are its biggest relative problems. But as noted by the index, it doesn't rate all that poorly even by these metrics when compared to other countries.

Another middle-of-the-pack power in ascent (though on a slower trajectory than India), South Korea has a strength gauge score of 0.32, with a per capita rating of 0.54.

The nation is a global leader in terms of technology and innovation. Other pros range from its low debt burden to its wealth equality. Limitations include the comparatively small size of the South Korean economy, the country's relative scarcity of natural resources, and its lack of reserve currency status.

Over the next 10 years, South Korea's real growth is expected to come in at 1.9%, which is around the global average but impressive for a developed economy.

As we've mentioned, South Korea's main strength is its high level of innovation, along with its highly educated workforce. Meanwhile, the nation's weakness is its shrinking workforce, with the population ageing faster than many other countries.

Japan has a strength gauge score of 0.33 and a per capita rating of 0.40, making it a middle-of-the-pack power, though it's technically in decline rather than ascent.

Highlighted assets include the nation's high internal order, effective allocation of labour and capital, and its reserve currency status. Other strengths include its narrow wealth gap and the country's modestly high happiness and health ratings. Conversely, Japan's overriding weakness is its lack of natural resources.

Japan's real growth rate projection over the next 10 years is 1.2%. While this is below the global average, the figure is impressive given Japan's average figure for the past 10 years was just 0.8%.

The country's key growth drivers will be the value its workers provide relative to their educational attainment and its level of bureaucracy. Growth is likely to be hampered by the nation's debt and debt service levels and its declining workforce. As is the case in South Korea, Japan's population is ageing more rapidly than that of most nations.

Yet another middle-of-the-pack power, Germany has a strength gauge score of 0.38, though its per capita score is much higher at 0.54. Of the European countries in the index, only the Netherlands and Switzerland are rated better by this metric.

Germany's major positive is its efficient allocation of labour and capital. Other attributes include the nation's top-notch health indicators. Its key negatives are the country's relative shortage of natural resources, its weak military, and its costly labour force.

Germany's growth prospects over the next 10 years are looking lacklustre. In fact, the country is expected to experience negative growth at -0.5%.

This is primarily down to the nation's shrinking workforce, which is expected to decline by 1.1%. Earlier this year, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck identified this as the country's biggest impediment to growth, declaring that Germany lacks “hands and minds” as a consequence of an ageing population.

The Eurozone is classed as a strong power in gradual decline. Its strength gauge score is 0.56, while the 20 European Union member states that use the euro as their currency have a combined per capita score of 0.43.

The Eurozone's key strengths include its robust financial markets, reserve currency status, prominent role in global trade, substantial economic output, well-developed infrastructure, and highly educated workforce. However, its challenges lie in its comparatively high labour costs and lack of natural resources.

The Eurozone's real growth prediction over the next 10 years is 0.2%, considerably below the global average.

The number is higher than that of its powerhouse economy Germany, but lower than some of the more economically dynamic countries in the grouping, such as the Netherlands.

With a strength gauge score of 0.8 and per capita rating of 0.3, China is deemed a strong power in rapid ascent, though its trajectory has been flatter over the past three years.

The country's strengths are its infrastructure and investment levels, its status as the global trade leader, innovation/technological skills, high level of education, and substantial economic output. China's growing military might is a key attribute too.

However, the nation's importance to world trade, reserve currency status, and standing as a financial centre have actually levelled out in recent years.

China's real growth rate projection for the next 10 years is a remarkable 4%, though several other developing economies are expected to record higher growth rates.

Rising debt will likely present an obstacle to growth, while factors such as increased levels of investment and improving productivity will drive the nation's ongoing economic expansion.

The US boasts a strength gauge score of 0.89 and per capita figure of 0.79, affirming the nation's status as the world's foremost power.

America is top dog thanks to its formidable capital markets and status as a financial centre, its unrivalled military (which dwarfs that of every other country), the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency, the nation's peerless economic output, its high level of education, brilliance in innovation, and wealth of natural resources.

The key negatives, according to the index, are the country's unfavourable economic/financial position and its domestic conflicts.

Over the next 10 years, the US is expected to record real growth of 1.4%. Although the figure is below the global average, it's strong for a developed country.

Again, high levels of debt and monetary policy are major threats to growth. In contrast, America's innovation/commercialism and extra-sophisticated level of bureaucracy are the primary advantages that will turbo-charge its future economic development.

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