If children are a blessing, the Earth could be cursed. After decades of concern over population growth, fertility is in decline, heralding a new era of shrinking, ageing demographics in almost every region of the world.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a measure of the number of births per woman. To account for infant mortality and replacing both parents, each needs to have an average of 2.1 births for population to remain stable. Yet a recent wide-ranging study published in The Lancet suggests only six countries will achieve that figure by the end of the century.
The issue poses huge economic and social challenges for the world. Read on to discover how different countries are trying to tackle it.
All dollar amounts in US dollars.
The Lancet study was conducted by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). It found that global TFR was barely above replacement level in 2021 and will fall to 1.83 as soon as 2050. By then, some countries’ populations will have halved as a result.
The causes of the fertility crunch are many and complex, but some major elements stand out. One is development. As a society becomes more advanced, women can more easily access education and so have more opportunities in life besides child-rearing. Meanwhile, more accessible contraception and better healthcare means more children survive infancy, so people may choose to have fewer of them.
Development also brings urbanisation. According to the UN, more than half the world now lives in towns and cities, where accommodation might support only small families or none at all. This is a world away from the old agrarian need for lots of children to help work the land.
Other factors include economic pressures, fears over future wars and climate change, and sociocultural factors such as attitudes to family, religion and tradition.
The authors of the IMHE study say the falling fertility rate will transform our lives and lead to astonishing social and economic change.
With fewer working-age taxpayers to finance health and social security systems, countries could struggle to care for increasingly elderly populations. At the same time, business activity could decline because labour shortages will become common, and there'll be fewer consumers to drive growth.
As economies contract, recessions may become routine, and stock markets will likely fall. There could be less innovation as investors hedge against decreasing consumer demand. To cap it all, with an ever-decreasing number of buyers available, house prices could collapse.
So, what are countries doing to try and avoid these problems?
A number of countries are playing Cupid in the hope this will result in more children. South Korea is one. The East Asian country has the world’s lowest TFR at just 0.82 in 2021, according to the IHME study. It’s declared childlessness to be a national crisis – and is acting accordingly.
Authorities have held mass blind dates complete with wine, chocolates and free background checks on potential partners. One city’s matchmaking event even offers a million won ($722/£566) for anyone who starts a romance after attending. If they go on to marry, they’ll receive a further 20 million won ($14.4k/£11k).
Other countries trying similar measures include Hungary, whose government has given subsidised loans to young couples who marry, waiving repayment if they go on to have at least three children. Marriage numbers surged as a result, but long-term fertility might be a different matter: the IHME still predicts Hungary’s to fall to 1.29 by the end of the century. Meanwhile, South Korea's is forecast to flatline.
As the IHME says in its survey, falling fertility will lead to enormous social change. This is proving to be the case in Taiwan, which has the second-lowest TFR of any populous country at 0.98, according to the study.
The Taiwanese government is proposing a new law which, for the first time, will allow those who can’t conceive to use surrogate parents. In a radical departure from tradition, same-sex couples and single women might be allowed to take part.
The new law is controversial and the government is still consulting on the details. But if it’s adopted, the democratically governed island of 24 million will prioritise the demographic threat over previous social norms. Especially given the ongoing military threat from China, it’s not hard to see why.
Housing costs are a big obstacle to raising a family, especially in cities. So what better way to encourage potential lovebirds than to help them with a nest? Singapore, where accommodation is especially scarce and the fertility rate was one of the world’s lowest at 1.2 in the IHME study, does just that.
It has a priority scheme that reserves a third of new public housing for first-time families. Other applicants such as those with three or more children also receive preferential treatment. The system works through a computer-generated ballot in which families and married couples get up to three chances. Singles have to wait until they’re 35 to apply, although as Singapore ages, starting next year, they’ll also get priority if they want to live with or near their parents.
Singapore’s public housing policy is clearly a nudge to have children, and it’s helped achieve enviable levels of home ownership. However, there are stringent conditions, such as remaining married for a minimum period after taking up residency, and many citizens still complain about the difficulty of getting suitable accommodation in the cramped city state.
Once you’ve got two people together and found them a home, how do you ensure they have children? Another thing that Singapore, among other countries, has considered is addressing any medical issues.
The government introduced public co-funding for assisted reproduction treatments like In-Vitro Fertilisation (IVF) in 2008. Any couple can apply so long as at least one of them is a Singapore citizen. The funding can account for up to 75% of the cost of up to three cycles of IVF, subject to a limit of 7,700 Singapore dollars per cycle ($5.8k/£4.5k). In 2020, the government removed an upper age limit of 45 for the scheme. What’s more, younger women who don’t yet want children can elect to have their eggs frozen to give them the chance later in life.
Despite these efforts, the IHME anticipates Singapore's fertility rate will continue to fall as the century progresses.
Some countries are almost begging their citizens to procreate out of patriotic duty. Among them is Italy, which has one of Europe’s lowest fertility rates according to the IHME, at only 1.21 in 2021. It’s held so-called Fertility Days to promote "the beauty of motherhood and fatherhood" and remind women of the finite time they have in which to give birth. Last year, prime minster Georgia Meloni joined Elon Musk (pictured) – a father of 11 – at a rally where Musk urged people to “make more Italians”. The country might literally die out otherwise, he warned.
Others have done likewise. One of the most famous was Australian ex-treasurer Peter Costello who, in 2004, famously called on couples to have three children: “one for mum, one for dad, and one for the country”.
Whether this patriotic fervour works is another matter, and critics in Italy have claimed it’s dystopian and authoritarian. In any case, IHME believes Italy's fertility rate will drop to 1.09 by the century’s end.
Last century, China imposed its drastic One Child Policy to prevent overpopulation. So if the country could reduce births by decree, why not simply do the opposite now? Well, it’s trying to.
Although the One Child Policy ended in 1990, China’s fertility rate was still only 1.23 in the IHME study. Attempting to kick start a baby boom, 10 years ago Beijing brought in a Two Child Policy instead; it led to a small spike in fertility but had little impact on population growth. In 2021, ministers announced yet another policy – now allowing couples to have three children.
China is not alone in its severe policies. Other authoritarian states like Iran and North Korea are restricting access to contraception too. Will it all work? In China’s case the IHME forecasts fertility to fall to 1.14 by 2050, then recover slightly to 1.16 by 2100. That would still be well short of replacement level though. Meanwhile, the amount of state interference in women’s lives will continue to worry many people.
If women have to do the lion’s share of raising children, it often forces them to choose between family and career. If you take the burden off women, maybe they can have both. That’s the reasoning that Japan, and several other countries, have adopted.
Japan is the world’s most aged society. It buys more adult incontinence products than nappies, and its 2021 TFR was just 1.26. In response, it’s calling on fathers to help with domestic chores. The Japanese Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare has found a direct link between the amount of childcare new fathers undertake and the number of subsequent children they have. To encourage them, it wants 85% of them to take paternity leave from Japan’s tough workplace culture. This year, a record 30% of them did. Japan also plans to subsidise men and women to work shorter hours while children are young.
The initiative mirrors a similar policy in Sweden, which has introduced a so-called Daddy Month – a month of extra paid holiday for whichever spouse has not already taken parental leave. Here too, more fathers took up the offer. It seems unlikely fertility rates will rise dramatically in either Sweden or Japan, though; by 2100 they’re expected to be 1.38 and 1.21 respectively.
One of the most pressing contemporary difficulties for would-be parents is economic hardship. Young people might aspire to have a family, but many feel they simply can’t afford it. Government sweeteners can help.
One of the latest countries to stump up cash is Spain. At 1.26 its 2021 fertility rate, as reported by IHME, is as low as Japan’s and among the very lowest in Europe. From next year, Spain's government wants to introduce a universal parenting benefit of 200 euros ($214/£166) per month for all parents. The payments would go on until the child reaches 18 years of age.
Many other countries give cash for kids. Italy and Greece have tried giving bonus payments for each additional child, while Russia offered families with more than two offspring an award equivalent to about $7,000 (£5.4k). One of the candidates in Taiwan’s election this year even suggested giving a free pet to couples who get pregnant.
Fertility rates in all the countries mentioned remain stubbornly low, though we don’t know if they’d be even lower without the cash incentives.
As fewer young people are born, one simple way to minimise the economic impact is to keep older people working longer. Countries that are raising their retirement ages include the UK and Germany, where fertility rates were 1.49 and 1.53 respectively in the IHME study.
Under a German reform, people who delay retirement and instead work for at least another year can receive a one-off payment equivalent to their lost pension. Their employers’ pension and insurance payments will also be paid directly to them, adding around 10% to their income.
Along with the carrot though, there’s a hefty stick: Germany is also raising its statutory pension age to 67 by 2031. In Britain too, that will soon be the default pension age, and by 2044, people will have to wait until they’re 68 to retire at state expense. Further rises have not been ruled out.
If you don’t have enough children of your own, perhaps you can employ someone else’s. As the IHME survey makes clear, low-fertility countries will increasingly rely on immigrants to make up shortfalls in their own workforces. Sub-Saharan Africa will likely be the source for many of these, as it will account for more than half the world’s births by 2100 (up from about 21% in 2021).
In places like Australia and the United States – both of which had fertility rates of 1.64 in the survey – migrants usually gain admission through a points system that prioritises skills in short supply. The migration will then normally be long-term, typically leading to naturalisation as a citizen.
This kind of migration can be mutually beneficial for both donor and host countries, offering economic mobility for one and a solution to labour shortages for the other. However, it also means migrants’ skills can be lost to their own countries if they settle elsewhere for good.
An alternative to Western migration models is that which countries like the UAE have adopted. The Emirates had a fertility rate of 1.9 in the survey and only a tiny indigenous population to begin with. In response, it’s become a society made up overwhelmingly of foreigners – but the foreigners will normally not become citizens.
The Emirates’ system is called kafala, and it’s widespread throughout the Gulf. It relies on employers to act as sponsors for immigrants, providing travel expenses, housing and medical insurance. Signing a labour contract means you get a residency visa. When the work ends, so does the residency.
Supporters say this model is highly responsive to economic needs and allows migrants to earn money which they can send home or save, transforming their lives over time. However, by giving employers such complete control over their fate, it's also open to abuse and may not be appropriate for the wider world.
One great hope for our shrinking world lies in technology. According to Dr Christopher Murray, a lead author of the IMHE study, automation and artificial intelligence could lessen the impact of declining workforces by replacing humans.
It remains a difficult path though. The tech revolution is common to almost every major country, but wealthier ones are likely to invest most heavily in it, and therefore benefit most. That means some of the nations expected to suffer the biggest falls in fertility this century, such as central Asian countries, might be at a disadvantage. What’s more, robots and AI might cause job losses in the few remaining high-fertility countries, leaving humans there worse off.
Few would doubt the possibilities though. Machines can do tasks that humans are no longer around to do. They can help with medical treatments that keep older people healthy and able to work longer. Also, doctors are already reporting big advances in reproductive medicine like IVF thanks to AI.
Of all the possible solutions, only immigration and automation are likely to make a significant difference to the fertility crunch. As the IHME study notes, there’s no evidence that making it easier to have a baby leads to a sustained rise in births.
The IHME study concludes that declining fertility rates will bring about dramatic economic and social challenges that will require international collaboration to address. It all means that the world will likely look very different by the end of this century.
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