According to the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth remains steady yet lacklustre compared to the pre-pandemic average. But while some nations and territories are keeping pace with this worldwide trend, others are floundering. Meanwhile, the most dynamic countries are recording staggering levels of growth, with one very lucky economy expected to mushroom by almost 44%.
Curious to see who's winning and who's losing? Read on as we reveal the fastest-growing and fastest-shrinking economies in the world based on the latest IMF data.
All dollar amounts in US dollars.
The IMF projections are based on real GDP growth, which is adjusted for inflation to give a more accurate picture of economic performance. The global average for 2024 is predicted to reach 3.2%, the same as 2023 but below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%. That same figure of 3.2% is forecast to remain unchanged in 2025.
It's important to point out that the IMF lacks data for a number of countries and territories, from distressed economies such as Lebanon, Afghanistan and North Korea to affluent tax havens like Monaco, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. Using the data that is available, we've ranked the 12 countries with a current growth forecast of 0% or below...
The IMF has downgraded its 2024 forecast for Germany since the last update in July, when the nation's economy had been projected to grow by 0.2%. 2025's figure has also been revised down from 1.3% to a disappointing 0.8%.
The gloomier outlook reflects ongoing weakness in manufacturing brought about by higher energy costs, skilled worker shortages and flagging demand in China for German exports. Other headwinds include muted consumer spending, squeezed federal budgets and plummeting property prices. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has warned the economy could take an even bigger hit if the second Trump administration slaps harsh tariffs on EU goods, which could spark a bitter trade war.
New Zealand's anticipated growth for 2024 has also been downgraded in the most recent IMF forecast, from 1.1% to zero.
The country's economy has stagnated, mainly due to high interest rates that have muted the housing market, spiked unemployment, sapped consumer spending and strained businesses. Record numbers of New Zealanders left the nation in 2024 to seek better opportunities elsewhere. Thankfully, the economy is expected to pick up in 2025 as interest rates soften, with the IMF forecasting growth of 1.9%, though the indirect consequences of any Trump tariffs could dampen the recovery.
Recession reared its head in Finland at the end of 2023. High interest rates and a downturn in exports, which the country massively relies upon, have taken a heavy toll. As a result, the Finnish economy is expected to have contracted by 0.2% in 2024.
The good news is Finland is emerging from recession. Interest rates are coming down, exports are picking up and growth is expected to reach a healthy 2% in 2025. However, the same Trump tariff concerns apply.
The IMF has significantly downgraded its 2024 forecast for Ireland, slashing the number from 3.3% in October 2023 to a stark -0.2% in the latest update.
A contraction in the country's multinational sector during the first half of 2024 is the primary driver of this decline. On the upside, growth is projected at 2.2% for 2025. This optimism is fuelled by factors such as lower inflation, decreasing interest rates and a strengthening labour market.
Projections suggest the Austrian economy was 0.6% smaller by the end of 2024 than it was in 2023, making it Europe's second-worst performer. The second year of negative growth for the nation, Austria has struggled with lower exports, declining investments and weak consumer spending, on top of high inflation and interest rates.
The head of the Austrian Economic Chamber has called the forecast “a wake-up call” for businesses to improve their competitiveness, though the country's economy is expected to grow by a modest 1.1% in 2025.
The IMF has cut recession-hit Estonia's growth forecast for 2024 from -0.5% in April to a grim -0.9% in its latest update.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has negatively impacted the country's economy, but the key drags are Estonia's poor productivity and competitiveness, coupled with weak domestic demand. The outlook for 2025 is much better though, with growth of 1.6% expected, but several planned tax increases could hamper consumer spending and undermine the recovery.
The civil war that's been raging in Yemen since 2014 has decimated the country's economy. In addition to the lives lost and widespread destruction, the conflict has upended supply chains, sapped foreign investment, spiked inflation and caused many other economic issues.
As a consequence, four out of five Yemenis have been plunged into poverty. And though the economy is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2025, this will be a small step forward considering the immense challenges the beleaguered nation faces.
Kuwait's economy is projected to have shrunk by 2.7% in 2024. The blame can be laid squarely on the production cuts OPEC+ introduced in late 2022 amid concerns over weak demand. The downturn has highlighted the Gulf state's over-reliance on oil and the pressing need to diversify its economy.
Growth is expected to return in 2025 at 3.3%, with the oil cartel planning to start gradually hiking prices in April. However, the price rises have already been pushed back by months, and cuts have been extended into 2026, which could take the edge off Kuwait's recovery.
President Javier Milei's shock therapy, a series of drastic free-market reforms that aim to stabilise Argentina's ailing economy, is causing much short-term financial pain in the country. A year ago, the nation's economy was expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, but the IMF has since downgraded the projection to -3.4%.
The fund is more optimistic about Argentina's growth prospects for 2025, when the economy is predicted to expand by 5% as the reforms bear fruit. Still, inflation is set to remain very high.
Haiti is in the midst of a devastating gang war and a protracted political crisis. Law and order has completely broken down in the Caribbean nation, and the economy is imploding.
Unfortunately, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere just keeps getting poorer, with its economy expected to contract by 4% in 2024.
Sudan has been embroiled in a catastrophic civil war since April 2023 that has wrecked the East African nation's economy. Military spending is swallowing up government budgets, infrastructure and commerce have collapsed, the Sudanese pound has tanked, and hyperinflation has kicked in.
Most concerning of all is the fact that 8.5 million Sudanese are facing famine as the conflict grinds on. The IMF believes the country's economy will have contracted by 20.3% in 2024. Growth of 8.3% is forecast for 2025, but the IMF has based this projection on the assumption that the war would be over by the end of 2024, so the figure will likely be revised down.
Neighbouring South Sudan is also in dire straits, with longstanding conflict and severe flooding bringing the country to its knees. Oil revenues, which the country is dependent on, have crashed, inflation has spiralled out of control and food shortages are rife, with half the population facing extreme hunger. The world's fastest shrinking economy, South Sudan's output is expected to show a decline of 26.4% in 2024.
The situation has become so desperate that the South Sudanese government has resorted to levying taxes on international aid trucks and UN peacekeepers, according to The Wall Street Journal.
At the other end of the scale, what about the world's fastest-growing economies?
The fastest-growing economies in the world right now are a mixed bag. We've included the nations with growth rates of 6% or more to highlight the most dynamic. These 18 countries are experiencing rapid economic expansion for various reasons, from increased tourism revenues to new-found oil wealth.
Read on to find out who tops our list...
An influx of Russian migrants due to the war in Ukraine has boosted Armenia's economy, driving domestic consumption and investment. While remaining reliant on Russia, Armenia is cultivating closer ties with the EU, striking a delicate balance between the two geopolitical powers, which is working wonders on its finances.
Growth for 2024 is projected at 6%. The figure is forecast to drop to 4.9% in 2025, but this represents a very strong performance many countries could only dream of.
Senegal's economy is also set to grow by 6% in 2024 and expand by a further 9.3% in 2025.
This enviable growth is driven by the development of the West African country's hydrocarbon resources, along with a conducive economic environment characterised by decreasing inflation. Additionally, ongoing reforms aimed at positioning Senegal as an emerging economy over the next decade are further bolstering its economic prospects.
Ethiopia's economy has been growing at a rapid pace in recent years. But this growth has come mainly as a result of public investment, which has saddled the nation with heavy debt.
Recent macroeconomic reforms have been introduced to tackle this and other issues, such as high inflation, but the government has its work cut out stimulating the country's weak public sector. That said, the IMF predicts even stronger growth of 6.5% for Ethiopia in 2025.
Hailed by the World Bank as the best-managed economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, Mauritius has developed a thriving mixed economy encompassing tourism, apparel manufacturing, IT services and more. The nation is also an emerging financial centre, thanks to its favourable tax regime, and continues to go from strength to strength, with growth for 2024 predicted at 6.1%
This has been no mean feat given the country's isolated location in the Indian Ocean and is testament to Mauritius' strong and stable governance, as well as its entrepreneurial spirit.
One of Asia's most notable growth leaders, Vietnam's economy has flourished in recent years. The nation has developed a diverse manufacturing and export sector, benefiting from Western companies reshoring from China. It's also nurturing an expanding digital economy. And with a growing middle class and an increased focus on renewable energy, the nation's economic outlook is super-positive.
In light of this optimism, the IMF predicts growth of 6.1% for both 2024 and 2025 for the Southeast Asian nation.
Economically, Benin has much in its favour right now, from its strategically important location in West Africa to its successful cotton sector (Benin is the continent's largest exporter of the commodity).
Investments in infrastructure and economic reform have laid the groundwork for further growth and development. However, the country isn't without its challenges, which include relatively high levels of corruption and poverty.
Staying in West Africa, Côte d'Ivoire's economic growth is also forecast at 6.5% in 2024.
This growth is underpinned by the country's powerhouse cocoa industry, which is the largest in the world. Other assets include its expanding oil and natural gas sector, a stable currency pegged to the euro and other tailwinds, such as increased domestic consumption and a burgeoning stock market.
Djibouti's port is the mainstay of the East African nation's economy, which is forecast to have grown by 6.5% in 2024. Significant investment in the port's infrastructure has been a boon to Djibouti as it seeks to establish itself as a global trading hub. The nation is also committed to developing its renewable energy resources and aims to become the first African country to use 100% green energy.
On the downside, the country's support for Iran and its proxies, including Houthi rebels – despite the impact their attacks on Red Sea shipping are having on the port – could alienate Western investors. Meanwhile, a maritime agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland could threaten Djibouti's status as the key regional trading centre.
The economy of Kyrgyzstan is in excellent form. Industrial output markedly increased last year, as did exports and foreign investments, while a reduction in the country's shadow economy has increased tax revenues and strengthened the overall outlook.
Growth in 2024 is expected to reach 6.5% in the landlocked Central Asian nation. While the number is set to soften in 2025, it's poised to remain buoyant at 5%.
Another of the Stans experiencing exceptional growth, Tajikistan's economy is expected to have expanded by 6.8% in 2024 before expanding a further 4.5% in 2025.
Factors contributing to this striking growth include increased infrastructure spending and an upswing in gold export revenue. And the future looks even brighter since the country's government recently announced the discovery of lucrative rare earth deposits.
The IMF has stuck to its forecasts for India in its latest update, with the country's economy expected to expand by 7% in 2024.
A slowdown in government spending and bank lending will likely hamper growth to some extent in 2025, with the figure projected at 6.5%. India is also contending with sluggish consumer demand, muted investment, and high inflation and interest rates. However, the general outlook is positive, and the country is well on its way to achieving its goal of becoming a high-middle-income economy by 2047.
Rwanda, which was ravaged by genocide in the 1990s, has emerged as one of Africa's biggest economic success stories of the 21st century. The country has rapidly industrialised and now boasts a number of thriving industries, from manufacturing and tourism to financial services.
A $2 billion (£1.6bn) international airport due for completion in 2026 will undoubtedly power economic growth and job creation. However, ongoing human rights concerns could potentially deter foreign investment and hinder the country's long-term economic development.
A considerable increase in exports, foreign investment and tourism has contributed to Georgia's rapid economic growth over the past few years. The nation's economy is forecast to expand by 7.6% in 2024 and 6% in 2025.
However, the decision by Georgia's new pro-Russian government to suspend EU succession talks doesn't bode well for the nation's future prosperity. The move has sparked widespread protests in the country.
Tourism is Palau's primary industry, accounting for 40% of its GDP. The post-pandemic recovery of the sector has resulted in speedy economic growth for the tiny Pacific island nation.
In fact, tourism numbers have all but returned to pre-COVID levels. Among the other factors contributing to Palau's growth, which is forecast to reach 8.1% in 2024, is a raft of infrastructure projects. These include the Japan-backed reconstruction of a major bridge linking the island of Koror, where the capital is located, to Malakai Island, home to the county's principal port and power station.
Samoa is also cashing in on the post-pandemic tourism boom. The upswing in visitor numbers to the Polynesian nation, together with other positive indicators such as an increase in overseas remittances, cooling inflation and judicious government debt management, have propelled its solid performance following several years of economic contraction.
All in all, 2024 growth is anticipated at a stellar 9.7%.
Africa's fastest-growing economy, Niger is on course to record growth of almost 10% for 2024. The figure is all the more remarkable given 2023's coup, which has ostracised the nation and done its economy zero favours.
Though Niger is dependent on agriculture, it boasts enormous oil reserves, and a new China-backed pipeline that snakes through neighbouring Benin is proving a key catalyst for growth in the West African nation.
Tourism underpins Macao's economy, and the sector has rebounded since the pandemic. Visitor arrivals, mainly from Mainland China, skyrocketed to an all-time high of 3.65 million in August 2024. In October, the casinos the special administrative region is famed for reported their highest monthly income since January 2020.
It's hardly surprising that growth is forecast to come in at 10.6% for 2024.
Guyana is in the midst of an extraordinary economic boom, thanks to the discovery of vast reserves of oil in the South American nation.
Guyana started tapping into the resource in 2020. Since then, GDP per capita has more than doubled. Growth is expected to hit an astonishing 43.8% in 2024 and the country is flush with money. But while each adult citizen has been given a one-off cash payment of 100,000 Guyanese dollars ($480/£380), much needs to be done to ensure Guyana's oil wealth benefits the entire population rather than a privileged few.
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