Cash usage in many countries was already declining before COVID-19 hit, and concerns about banknotes and coins transmitting the virus could speed up its demise further. Using a ranking created by GlobalData – which analysed data from 2019 on smartphone and internet banking usage, the number of cards owned by each person, frequency of card usage and e-commerce spending as a percentage of GDP – click or scroll through to see the nations that are predicted to be the first to go cash-free.
Euro notes could be seen a lot less frequently if the trend towards digital payments continues at the pace it's already at in Germany. Yet although there has been a relatively strong uptake of cashless transactions in Germany, it is thought that this is largely driven by online purchasing and many German people still enjoy the control that paying in cash gives them. In 2017, a study by Bundesbank found that 88% of Germans wanted to continue using cash in the future, with the average person carrying €107 ($127/£97).
Many Malaysian businesses have adapted quickly to the changing payment landscape brought by COVID-19, with more taking contactless payments, as well as offering their products and services through digital platforms and apps. Seven in 10 Malaysians support the country going cashless and 62% believing this can be achieved in the next five years, according to a study by Visa Inc.
Austria is seeing an increase in non-cash transactions although, like Germany, it has lagged behind other European nations in the drive to become cashless, with only one in 10 people imagining they could manage without banknotes and coins according to The World Payment Report 2019. As in most other countries, card payment is more popular among 20- to 40-year-olds, while over-60s use cards less frequently.
Although people in Slovakia are increasingly opting for contactless payments when it comes to low-value payments, two in three Slovak businesses believe that it will take longer than 10 years for the country to go cashless or that it will never happen, according to the Intrum European Payment Report 2019, which surveyed 11,856 businesses across Europe. That's compared to an average of 48% of European respondents who believed their country would go cashless within 10 years.
Spain comes in 23rd place in the GlobalData rankings, although if the government's recent plans are anything to go by, it could be set to speed ahead in the race towards becoming cashless. In June the Ministry of Finance announced plans to cut cash payments, including reducing the limit for payments from €2,500 to €1,000, in order to reduce black market and tax-dodging activities. The Bank of Spain has also increased the contactless limit from €20 to €50.
In Belgium there has been an increase in the number of people using card and alternative forms of payment. In 2018 there were nearly 1.73 billion card payments made at point of sale terminals, up from 1.24 billion in 2016, according to Statista data. During the pandemic, Belgian authorities have encouraged people to use card or electronic payments where possible.
ATMs could be on their way out in Russia and the purses and wallets of those living and travelling in the country are getting lighter as there is less call for rouble and kopeck notes and coins now. In the fourth quarter of 2019, cashless transactions represented just over half (50.4%) of all payments for goods and services in Russia, exceeding cash payments for the first time ever, according to Sberbank. Apple Pay and Samsung Pay arrived in Russia in 2016 and Android Pay launched in 2017, so cash is definitely being given a run for its money here.
In July, Lithuania became the first country in the world to issue a state-backed digital collectable coin, called the LBCOIN. The block-chain based currency is made by the Lithuanian Mint and depicts the country's 1918 act of independence, carrying a nominal value of €19.18 ($22.35/£17.30) to signify the date. The country is becoming something of a financial technology hub too, as in 2019 there was a 20% growth in the number of electronic money institutions and payment institutions that operated in the country compared to the previous year.
Switzerland trails behind many of its European neighbours in the uptake of cashless payments. In fact, in March 2019 the Swiss National Bank unveiled a revamped 1,000 franc bill, equivalent to around €936 ($1,095/£843), despite the fact that many other countries are phasing out high-value notes, showing the country's affinity for cash. Yet coronavirus could have a lasting impact on habits, as the use of cash remained significantly lower after lockdown than pre-pandemic levels. ATM withdrawals fell by 50% between mid-March and mid-April, while contactless payments are on the rise and in April card providers doubled the contactless limit.
It might not be too long before most Americans leave the house without a dime, cent or dollar bill. Trust and privacy concerns are often cited as the reasons behind Americans being unlikely to give up cash completely in the short term, but the growth of digital wallet app use shows that people are slowly becoming more accepting of cashless payments. However, last year a staggering 7.1 million American households were unbanked, meaning they didn't have a bank or credit union account, with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation predicting that more Americans could become unbanked due to loss of income as a result of the pandemic.
The Bank of Japan could soon be printing far fewer yen notes and moulding fewer yen coins if the trend towards cashless transactions continues on its upward spiral in the country. Japan had intended to make a big push to go cashless this year, with events including the Tokyo Olympics, which had a major partnership with Visa, aimed at encouraging more people to adopt mobile payment options. While such events may have been postponed, COVID-19 has certainly accelerated the journey towards becoming a cashless society. Japan is often thought of as the originator of mobile payments, with payments being made through its Osaifu-Keitai, or mobile wallet system, via smartphones since 2004.
Cash certainly isn't king in Canada, where just 36% of people said they had used it to make a payment in the past week, compared to 52% who had used their debit card and 62% who had used a credit card, based on a survey taken in March and April this year. However, the study, carried out by the Bank of Canada, also found that the amount of cash in circulation had increased sharply over that period, with many people wishing to increase their access to cash during the pandemic. Although fewer people want to pay with it, many are keen to keep emergency reserves of banknotes in these uncertain times.
France is another Eurozone country that won't need to print as many euro notes and coins in the future. In 2015, the French government stepped in to reduce cash payments in the country by introducing a law that limits cash payments to a maximum of €1,000. This initiative was devised to reduce tax evasion and money laundering, but it has also given a boost to digital payment transactions.
Could Australian dollar bills and coins be about to become extinct? Australians have been quick to switch to cashless payments, with contactless debit cards being shown to be their preferred cashless payment method. While the pandemic has led cash use to plummet across the population, the amount of cash actually in circulation has increased by AU$11 billion (US$7.8bn/£6bn) as more people are withdrawing cash to keep at home.
ATMs could be on the way out in the UK as people prefer to pay by card or mobile payment over cash. The use of cash has been in decline in the UK for some time and 7.4 million Britons were already living an "almost cashless life" in 2019, according to official data from trade association UK Finance. The report also found that less than a quarter of all payments were made with cash, while more than half were made by credit or debit card. However, not everyone is ready to axe pound coins and notes completely: 17% of the UK population, or around 8 million people, would struggle to cope with a cashless society according to research from the Access to Cash Review 2019.
The Chinese yuan, jiao and fen notes and coins could soon be relegated to museum pieces if the move to contactless payments in China continues at the rate it is moving at right now. In Chinese cities cashless payments are now the norm in convenience stores, shopping malls and restaurants and they are often even accepted in markets and by street vendors and for bicycle rental. According to data from the People's Bank of China, in 2019 banks handled non-cash mobile payments valued at 347.11 trillion yuan ($51.6tn/£39.6tn), up more than 25% year on year. Figures are only set to increase this year due to COVID-19.
'We don't accept cash' signs are a familiar sight in shop windows in Sweden's high streets and all buses are cashless too. Mobile payment systems are also used by small traders, those manning market stalls and and even for public toilets. According to data from Sweden's central bank, Riksbanken, in 2018 the percentage of people who paid for their most recent purchase in cash was just 13%, compared to 39% in 2010. Not everyone is happy with the move towards digital payments, however, with many elderly people in Sweden are finding it hard to adapt to and trust the new ways of payment.
Thanks to a strong cashless infrastructure and a preference for electronic payments, Finland is well on its way to becoming cash-free, with its central bank predicting the country may become completely cashless by 2029. Ranking first in the GlobalData report, use of cash is declining in both urban and rural areas, while trust in institutions and high uptake of technology has fuelled the rise of alternative payments.