Bill Gates predicts the next 10 world-changing breakthroughs
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Take a look into the future
The MIT Technology Review couldn't have asked for a more on the money seer to compile its latest list of 10 Breakthrough Technologies. Computer pioneer turned mega-philanthropist Bill Gates has long had a knack for making spookily accurate predictions, having foreseen everything from social media and smartphones to price comparison sites. We peer into the future via the Microsoft co-founder's crystal ball and reveal the 10 technologies he believes will soon change the world.
Courtesy Massachusetts General Hospital
2019: Gut probe in a pill
The gut probe in a pill is another medical breakthrough that could save the lives of many children around the world. Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital are fine-tuning a number of easily-swallowed cost-effective devices that can detect conditions such as environmental enteropathy, a preventable bowel condition that can cause malnutrition. It affects millions of children in developing countries.
Courtesy Massachusetts General Hospital
2019: Gut probe in a pill
The current procedure for detecting the disorder is invasive and costly, and many children remain undiagnosed as a result. The probe has other applications too. They include screening for conditions such as Barrett's esophagus and hiatal hernia, which are diagnosed by upper endoscopy and biopsy at present. The probe pill is already used in adults, and has started to be tested on infants.
2019: Customised cancer vaccines
Gates has high hopes for this next exciting breakthrough: personalised cancer vaccines. Tweaked to the individual patient, the vaccines work by homing in on cancer cells in their early stages of growth and stimulating the body's immune system to destroy them.
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2019: Customised cancer vaccines
Courtesy Impossible Foods
2020: The cow-free burger
The next technological advance selected by Gates is meat-free meat, which he thinks is a huge game-changer. So much so the Microsoft billionaire has put his money where he mouth is by investing in the industry's dominant companies: Beyond Meat, Memphis Meats and Impossible Foods. Meat production, particularly beef, is especially taxing on the planet and a significant driver of climate change.
2020: The cow-free burger
More people than ever are turning to vegetarian and vegan diets, or even a 'flexitarian' regime that includes some meat, but is largely vegetarian. So, the interest in and demand for meat-free alternatives that mimic the taste and texture of the real deal is booming. Plant-based meat is already widely available, and Beyond Meat, which produces this 'meat', had the most successful IPO for years back in May, scoring a valuation of $3.8 billion (£3bn). However, lab-grown meat is about a year away.
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2021: Sanitation without sewers
Gates is passionate about improving the health and quality of life for the 2.3 billion people globally who lack basic sanitation, according to the World Health Organization. Launched in 2011, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation initiative Reinvent the Toilet has spent hundreds of millions of dollars funding sanitation research and showcasing designs that process waste without a sewage system.
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2021: Sanitation without sewers
Educational establishments and companies have come up with some novel solutions, including the University of South Florida with its human waste converter turning energy and water from waste. But the race is still on to produce a cheap toilet that can operate without sewers. As well as improving and saving lives says Gates, the technology may help save $233 billion (£184bn) a year in costs related to diseases caused by poor sanitation.
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2021: Smooth-talking AI assistants
The current crop of AI assistants – think Siri or Alexa – are still pretty limited in what they can do, but all is set to change in the near future. Advances in AI have resulted in the creation of cleverer virtual assistants that can master complex tasks, from taking meeting notes to making appointments.
2021: Smooth-talking AI assistants
Current examples include Google Duplex, which can make restaurant reservations and understand natural human conversation, and Alibaba’s AliMe, the Chinese e-commerce giant's customer service AI assistant. The intelligent chatbot can tackle all sorts of requests and deals with an impressive 95% of customer service queries. The technology is becoming so on point in fact that some people can't tell whether they're chatting with a robot or human being.
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2022: An ECG on your wrist
Wearable technology is on the verge of transforming how common and not so common conditions are detected, diagnosed and treated. Wristband heart rate monitors for instance are progressing from simple gizmos that record your ticker's beats per minute to ultra-sensitive ECG devices that can detect a range of abnormalities including the warning signs of a stroke or heart attack.
2022: An ECG on your wrist
A slew of innovative firms are active in the field. They include industry leader Withings, which is working on a smartwatch called Move ECG that can take an electrocardiogram on the go, and AliveCor, a California-based company that has created a two-sensor device with the ability to detect atrial fibrillation from your fingertips.
2023: Robot dexterity
Robots are becoming ever more sophisticated and able to handle a wide variety of tasks. Improving their dexterity is key according to Gates. AI-related advances are set to transform automatons from clumsy machines capable only of carrying out limited tasks, to multitasking marvels that can teach themselves to do anything from paint a picture to assemble a car.
2023: Robot dexterity
UC Berkeley is a major player in the field. A research team at the university has developed “the most dexterous robot ever” using a robotic manipulating technology called Dex-Net, which has neural network-controlled hands that can learn how to grasp unusually shaped objects. Other major organisations on the vanguard of robot dexterity include Open AI and Carnegie Mellon University.
2024: Predicting preemies
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Maternal, Newborn & Child Health program is all about improving the health of expectant and new mother and babies, so it's no wonder Gates has included a near-miraculous blood test that can predict if an expectant mother will give birth prematurely.
2024: Predicting preemies
Cheap to produce and administer, the test was developed by a team at California's Stanford University. It assesses the mother's blood levels for cell-free RNA, the molecule that carries genetic instructions, to work out the age of the baby and the risk of a premature birth. A spinoff startup called Akna Dx has been created to market it. A total of 15 million babies are born prematurely each year, and given premature birth is the leading cause of death in children under five, this new test has the potential to save countless lives.
2024: Carbon dioxide catcher
Gates is keeping a close eye on the field of carbon dioxide capture as well. Like next generation nuclear power and cow-free burgers, this emerging technology is likely to be one of our most effective weapons in the battle against climate change. Technologies that literally suck the greenhouse gas out of the air could make a real difference.
2024: Carbon dioxide catcher
A number of carbon dioxide-catching plants are already open or slated to launch in the near future. They include Swiss firm Climeworks' facility, the first of its kind to extract the gas from the air and store it underground. Other facilities in Switzerland and the US will sell on the captured commodity to the drinks industry.
2025: New-wave nuclear power
Gates is a leading proponent of nuclear power, the wider adoption of which could help avert climate change. Technological advances are making nuclear power safer and more cost-effective. The most exciting include the development of Generation IV reactors for fission and and even fusion, the holy grail of nuclear power, as well as mini modular reactors that can be used on a relative small scale.
2025: New-wave nuclear power
Cleaner, safer and super-efficient next generation fission reactors are being developed by companies such as TerraPower, a company that Gates himself founded. In 2011 the company launched a project in China to develop a reactor that could use depleted uranium and not just enriched uranium. This could solve the nuclear waste issue, but US policy changes regarding China have prevented the pilot project from getting off the ground. Similarly startups like Commonwealth Fusion Systems and TAE Technologies are working hard on fusion and NuScale, an Oregon-based company, expects to deliver dinky modular reactors by 2025.
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