The world's richest countries getting richer in 2020
Countries getting richer in 2020
The year 2020 is set to see its fair share of turbulence and uncertainty. The US presidential election, a potential hard Brexit and trade disputes will all factor into the global economy. So how will all of this affect the economic growth of wealthy countries around the world? And will any of them be much better off? Here we countdown the countries predicted to see the highest real GDP growth in 2020, using figures from the IMF's latest report.
35. Iceland – 1.6%
Iceland is expected to see real GDP growth of around 1.6% in 2020, up from 0.8% the previous year. The country's economy suffered in 2019 due to the collapse of WOW Air in March, causing visitor numbers to significantly decrease. However, with tourism figures predicted to rebound in 2020 and the government's expansionary monetary policy likely to stimulate more private investment, things are looking up for Iceland.
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34. Netherlands – 1.6%
The Netherlands is projected to experience low economic growth of 1.6% in 2020, which is lower than the 1.8% estimate of 2019. This slowdown is expected to be the result of U.S. trade policies, a potentially chaotic Brexit, and weaker growth in Germany and China. However, government policies for fiscal growth should help to strengthen consumer spending.
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33. Portugal – 1.6%
While Portugal saw GDP growth of around 1.9% in 2019, weaker growth of 1.6% is expected for 2020. The reasons for this potential slowdown are global trade tensions, a decrease in demand for exports and less growth in world trade. The uncertainty that still remains around Brexit is also a key factor, not only for trade agreements but also the country's tourist arrivals, as the UK is currently Portugal's largest tourism market.
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32. Austria – 1.7%
Austria is predicted to see GDP growth of just 0.1% in 2020, up from 1.6% in 2019. Not only is the country experiencing a downturn in its industrial sector (not helped by the slowdown in the German car industry), it is also facing meagre growth in its services sector. These factors, coupled with slow global growth and a potentially chaotic Brexit, mean the country's firms are feeling less optimistic about the future, as was noted in a recent report by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.
31. Canada – 1.8%
Canada is predicted to see growth of 1.8% in 2020. The country's economy has expanded in recent years thanks to a rise in services and goods exports, and 219,000 jobs were created between 2017 and 2018. However, the trade war between the U.S. and China is likely to hamper economic growth if it escalates, with SMEs suffering the most. Downturns in the manufacturing sectors of both Germany and the U.S. are also likely to negatively affect Canada's economy.
30. Spain – 1.8%
Spain's economic growth is predicted to slow from 2.2% in 2019 to 1.8% growth in 2020. External factors including Brexit and uncertainty in the Chinese economy are expected to play a part, as is the government's plan to increase the minimum wage. While the recently-approved 22.3% increase will be good news for many of the country's low-paid workers, it could spell trouble for businesses, as well as the country's own economy. In fact, the Bank of Spain has estimated that around 125,000 jobs could be at risk because of the hike.
29. Denmark – 1.9%
Denmark is likely to see economic growth rise to 1.9% in 2020, which is an improvement on 2019's forecast, but remains fairly low. The U.S. and China trade war, fears over Brexit, and a slowdown in the country's main export markets, particularly Germany, are all likely to have a negative effect on investment and exports. However, experts say that the predicted GDP growth of 1.9% would have been even lower had it not been for an influx of foreign workers (384,000 in 2018), who have helped to boost expansion in sectors such as agriculture.
28. Taiwan – 1.9%
Given that Taiwan's economy is largely reliant on international trade, recent disputes between the U.S. and China and Japan and South Korea could have a negative knock-on effect for the country. Predicted GDP growth for 2020 is 1.9%, lower than the rate of 2% in 2019. However, there are upsides. Many Taiwanese companies have been returning production home from China in order to avoid U.S. tariffs. The demand for technologies like AI and 5G could also help drive economic growth.
27. United States – 2.1%
The U.S. economy has enjoyed continued expansion for the last 11 years. This is set to continue into 2020 with GDP growth of 2.1%, albeit at a lower rate than the 2.4% of 2019. The world's largest economy is facing weaker growth in the face of slower global growth and trade disputes. This means that, while the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low of 3.5%, the rate of real GDP growth is expected to be much lower than the 4% previously promised by President Trump.
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26. Greece – 2.2%
Greece is expected to see GDP growth of 2.2% in 2020, up from 2% the year before. It is hoped that an increase in investment and tax cuts will help stimulate economic expansion as the country recovers from its long-term debt crisis. Greece currently has the highest rate of unemployment in the eurozone, as well as the largest national debt. However, things are gradually improving and experts expect Greece's debt to fall from 173.3% of GDP in 2019 to 167.8% of GDP in 2020.
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25. South Korea – 2.2%
South Korea is forecast to see growth of 2.2% in 2020, up from 2% in 2019. This rather weak growth is expected to be the result of a meagre increase in domestic demand and exports. There's better news for the facilities investment sector, which is showing signs of further expansion, and the ailing construction investment sector is also likely to see an improvement.
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24. Saudi Arabia – 2.2%
Despite having an impressively large economy, Saudi Arabia has suffered in recent years due to a crash in oil prices and the introduction of austerity measures aimed at reducing its deficit. As a result, 2019 estimated growth was just 0.2%. The year 2020 is looking more positive though, with expected growth to reach 2.2%. This is largely down to government policies helping to drive expansion in non-oil sectors, such as financial services and tourism.
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23. Australia – 2.3%
The Australian economy saw a downturn in 2018 and 2019 thanks to severe drought and a slump in the housing market. Things are looking more positive for 2020, with predicted GDP growth of 2.3%, compared to 1.7% the previous year. This is largely due to increased consumer spending. However, China is Australia's biggest trading partner, and as the world's second largest economy is experiencing weak growth, it could spell trouble Down Under.
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22. Norway – 2.4%
Norway is enjoying its third year of economic expansion, and this is set to continue with a GDP growth rate of 2.4% in 2020. The main catalyst for this growth is the large amount of investment in the country's offshore oil and gas production, although the majority of its other sectors are also growing. As a result, in October 2019 the Norwegian government announced it will take less money from its $1.1 trillion (£846.8bn) sovereign wealth fund - the world's largest - in 2020.
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21. Costa Rica – 2.5%
Growth in tourism, business services exports and increased domestic demand mean that Costa Rica is predicted to see GDP growth of 2.5% in 2020, up from 2% in 2019. In August 2019 the government announced plans to partner with the private sector in 2020 to invest up to $160 million (£121m) in airport infrastructure improvements. The tourism industry currently accounts for around 10% of Costa Rica's GDP.
20. Czech Republic – 2.6%
Economic growth in the Czech Republic has been strong in recent years. In 2020 the country's GDP is expected to expand by 2.6%, off the back of strong private investment and exports. Consumer spending is also likely to remain robust, thanks to increasing wages and a low rate of unemployment. However, the country's labour shortages are likely to remain a bar to higher growth.
19. Croatia – 2.7%
Croatia saw good growth in 2019 thanks to a higher employment rate and an increase in wages, both leading to more consumer spending. GDP growth is expected to continue into 2020, fuelled by strong domestic demand and investment in both the private and public sectors. The country's unemployment rate is forecast to decrease further, from 9% in 2019 to 8% in 2020, according to the IMF.
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18. Lithuania – 2.7%
The Lithuanian economy saw strong growth of around 3.4% in 2019, fuelled by investment and absorption of EU funds. However, due to the global economy slowing the country's GDP growth for 2020 is predicted to be 2.7%. The Lithuanian central bank has also noted the Brexit process as being a hindrance to the growth of the country's economy.
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17. New Zealand – 2.7%
New Zealand's economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2020, bettering the 2.5% GDP growth of the previous year. Government loose monetary policies, such as lowering interest rates and encouraging borrowing, have meant an increase in consumer spending and therefore domestic demand. However, the country has a small economy that is largely dependent on trade. Given that China, its biggest export partner, is experiencing weaker growth, New Zealand is likely to experience a knock-on effect.
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16. Slovakia – 2.7%
Slovakia is expected to continue enjoying economic expansion over the next two years, with an estimated GDP growth rate of 2.7% for 2020. This is not only due to increased by foreign demand, but also improvements in the labour market. Higher employment and an acceleration in wage growth means stronger private consumption.
15. Latvia – 2.8%
Latvia's GDP growth rate is expected to remain static at 2.8%, according to the IMF figures. Private consumption remains strong, with sectors such as entertainment, professional services and public catering experiencing positive growth. However, political uncertainty and lacklustre global GDP growth means less demand for exports such as manufacturing, as well as cautious local companies reluctant to make investments.
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14. Luxembourg – 2.8%
The IMF predicts that Luxembourg will see GDP growth of 2.8% in 2020. This is compared to 2.6% in 2019. While external factors such as Brexit, slow international growth and trade tensions will impact the country's economy, its strong rate of private consumption in the non-financial services sectors is expected to balance out negative impacts on international trade.
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13. Qatar – 2.8%
Qatar managed to avoid blows to its economy following the economic blockade imposed by a Saudi-led coalition in 2017, following accusations that the country had been funding terrorism. The government deposited around $40 billion (£30.4bn) into its banking system in order to increase liquidity. GDP growth for 2020 is expected to reach 2.8%, up from 2% in 2019. This is due to the country's hosting of the FIFA World Cup in 2022, the $10.4 billion (£7.9bn) Barzan gas project and the upcoming North Field gas expansion project.
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12. Cyprus – 2.9%
Cyprus's economy returned to growth in 2015 following its 2013 financial crisis. The IMF expects the country's economy to continue growing in 2020, with a predicted GDP growth rate of 2.9%, and unemployment is predicted to decrease further, from 7% in 2019 to 6% in 2020. Meanwhile, on the topic of Brexit, Cyprus's Minister of Finance, Harris Georgiades, has assured that the country is "adequately prepared for any eventuality".
11. Estonia – 2.9%
Estonia's rate of economic growth is set to slow from 3.2% in 2019 to 2.9% in 2020. This is mainly down to a slowdown in investment activity and a decline in household consumption. However, robust private spending is expected to help offset these negative factors, with industries such as IT, professional, scientific and technical activities and wholesale and retail being particularly strong.
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10. Slovenia – 2.9%
Slovenia's economy is expected to expand by 2.9% in 2020. With an increase in wages and a higher rate of employment, household consumption will be boosted, alongside the housing sector. Business investment should continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than the last few years. However, wage increases may be a barrier to export growth.
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9. Chile – 3%
The Chilean economy has seen rapid growth over the last few decades, thanks in part to large-scale structural reforms. As a result, the percentage of the country's citizens who live in poverty (less than $5.50/£4.18 a day) has reduced from 30% in 2000 to 6.4% in 2017, according to the World Bank. In 2020 the economy is expected to see further growth thanks to a rise in copper prices; good news for the world's biggest copper producer.
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8. Israel – 3.1%
Israel's economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2020, the same rate as 2019. The appreciation of the shekel paired with political tensions worldwide means that growth is not as high as it could be. However, the country's exports markets are predicted to see good growth over the next couple of years, and as it starts to sell gas exports to Egypt this will also provide an important boost to the economy.
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7. Poland – 3.1%
Poland has seen great economic growth in recent years, thanks in large part to increased private consumption and expanding investment activity. The large influx of migrants from the Ukraine has also added at least 0.5% to annual GDP growth between 2015 and 2018. However, while 2019 growth was around 4%, 2020 is predicted to slow to 3.1%, thanks to a slowdown in European growth and the country's labour shortages.
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6. Hungary – 3.3%
Hungary is set to experience GDP growth of around 3.3% in 2020. Why? Private investment is expected to rise further, with large real estate development projects underway. The country's population are also spending more, thanks to an increase in wages, boosting private consumption from 4.5% in 2019 to 4.9% in 2020. However, Hungary's growth is slowing compared to the 4.6% growth rate of 2019, reflecting a decrease in public investment and the impact of weaker global growth.
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5. Ireland – 3.5%
Ireland continues to see its economy expand, thanks to strong growth in consumer spending brought on by wage increases. Investment in construction is another big factor in supporting the predicted 3.5% GDP growth in 2020. It's worth mentioning, however, that this is a slowdown compared to the 2019 figure of 4.3%. The reasons behind this are weaker global growth and uncertainty around Brexit leading to less business investment.
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4. Oman – 3.7%
Oman is one of the few countries on our list that is expected to see a better 2020 GDP growth rate than the previous year. While the 2019 figure from the IMF was 0%, the predicted 2020 growth rate is 3.7%. This is likely to be a one-off spike, however, caused by large government investment in the Khazzan gas fields, alongside a programme for economic diversification. There are still significant challenges ahead, most notably the youth unemployment rate (those ages 15-24 years old), which the International Labour Organization (ILO) puts at 49%. That's a pretty hefty figure for a country where 40% of the population is under the age of 25.
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3. Malta – 4.3%
The IMF predicts GDP growth of 4.3% for Malta in 2020. This is due to strong private consumption, driven by record employment growth and a new focus on the international services sector. While the country's economic growth will continue to be robust, it is cooling down from the previous year, when the GDP growth rate stood at 5.1%. This is largely thanks to external factors including political instability, weaker global growth and Brexit.
2. China – 5.8%
As the world's second largest economy, China is expected to see GDP growth of 5.8% in 2020. While this is much higher than the majority of countries in our list, it's actually a 30-year low for China. This economic slowdown is partly down to weaker demand both domestically and internationally, and rising tariffs following the trade war with the U.S. However, as the country is implementing significant structural reforms, it's expected that future growth will be more sustainable in the long-term.
1. India – 7%
India takes the top spot in our list, with predicted GDP growth of 7% in 2020, up from 6.1% in 2019. The country has seen rapid economic expansion over the last two decades, thanks in large part to its focus on the services industry, with large inward investment from international companies. While the trade war between China and the U.S. has hurt the Indian economy, its growth is robust enough to offset this negative impact.
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