Countries’ economies hardest hit by coronavirus
Nations taking a financial beating from the Covid-19 pandemic
Coronavirus is ravaging economies around the world, grinding entire countries to a halt and sending stock markets haywire, weakening currencies, crippling trade, destroying businesses and hiking up unemployment in its wake. As the financial fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic begins to settle, click or scroll through as we take a look at the hardest hit nations economically and reveal what they are doing to mitigate the impact.
Japan
Japan has been spared the escalating cases and shocking death tolls that have plagued China, parts of Europe and the US, but has now nonetheless declared a state of emergency. Nevertheless, the Covid-19 pandemic is battering the country's economy. Consumer spending has nosedived, exports are paralysed, and travel and tourism have all but ceased. Japan's stock market has plunged 23% since the start of the year and unemployment is on the increase.
Japan
Adding to the nation's woes, the postponement of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games is likely to shave 1.4% off Japan's GDP. A deep recession is on the cards with the country's economy expected to contract by 2.4% this year, says ratings agency Moody's. Still, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Japanese government, which has described the economic situation as severe, recently unveiled an unprecedented $989 billion (£803bn) stimulus, equivalent to 20% of GDP, to get the Land of the Rising Sun rising again.
Australia
Australia appears to be escaping the worst ravages of the outbreak. The number of Covid-19 deaths in the country is comparatively low and the all-important infection curve is flattening according the country's chief medical officer, thanks to the lockdown measures put in place in eight states and mainland territories, which will be gradually eased in the coming weeks. Australia's economy, however, is taking a major hit.
Australia
The Aussie dollar has tumbled in value and the country's benchmark ASX 200 stock market index is down 24% since the beginning of January. ANZ Bank predicts GDP will fall by 13% in the second quarter of 2020 with unemployment soaring from 5.1% to 13%, while accounting giant KPMG has warned the economic effects of the pandemic could take a decade to fully recover from. Here's hoping the recent interest rate cut and $140 billion (£114bn) stimulus can cushion the blow.
Thailand
Economies that rely heavily on exports and tourism appear to be most vulnerable to the Covid-19 pandemic. Though Thailand is by no means the worst affected country in terms of cases and deaths, the southeast Asian nation, which is partly on lockdown, has been identified by JP Morgan as being among the five that will be most impacted economically. JP Morgan predicts the Thai economy will experience a 3.3% contraction in 2020 but the Bank of Thailand puts the figure at 5.3%.
Thailand
The country's stock market has fallen 29% so far this year as businesses small and large suffer, and a third of Thailand's population has signed up for cash handouts to help them through the pandemic. The government has launched two relief packages worth $15.7 billion (£12.8bn) and plans to greenlight a third, but whether the cash will be enough to deal with the crisis and kickstart the economy is open to question.
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Canada
Canada has considerably fewer cases of coronavirus than its neighbour the US, and the social distancing measures that have been widely adopted should flatten the curve and help the country avert the worst. If only the same could be said for the Canadian economy, which is being pummelled by the partial lockdown and precipitous drop in global oil prices – Canada is a major producer of the commodity after all.
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Canada
Canada's primary stock market indicator has slipped 24% since January. GDP could shrink by 18% and the jobless rate may surpass double figures during Q2 of this year, the Royal Bank of Canada has cautioned. In fact a million Canadians, 5% of the total workforce, have already claimed on unemployment insurance. Fortunately, analysts expect the economy, which will be helped along by a CA$107 billion (US$75bn/£61bn) stimulus, to bounce back quickly once the pandemic has waned.
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France
France, which has the fifth highest number of Covid-19 cases in the world, enacted strict lockdown measures on 17 March to help temper the spread of the disease. As a result, the country's economy is in the doldrums, to put it mildly. Finance minister Bruno Le Maire has said that France is facing its biggest economic slump since World War II and fears coronavirus could “shipwreck” the nation's finances.
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France
This year to date the CAC 40, France's benchmark stock market index, has dived by 31% as economic activity in the country slowed dramatically. The French government has pledged $50 billion (£41bn) to fight the pandemic and protect businesses and jobs, and can also access generous EU funds, including the $810 billion (£660bn) set aside by the European Central Bank, but the sudden increase in spending may have the knock-on effect of ballooning the country's deficit.
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New Zealand
New Zealand's economy is driven in a large part by exports and tourism, so even though the country has avoided the sort of explosive growth in coronavirus cases other nations have endured, the OECD predicts it will take a bigger financial hit than most. New Zealand also features on JP Morgan's five worst affected economies list. With almost a third of the economy at a standstill, it's not hard to work out why.
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New Zealand
New Zealand's stock market has dipped 14% since the start of January. Recession is a near certainty and unemployment levels are expected to rise to levels not seen since the Great Depression. As a consequence, GDP could be slashed by 4.8%. On a positive note, the country's economy is among the most resilient in the world. Bolstered by reduced interest rates and the hefty stimulus the government recently unveiled, it's more than likely to recover relatively fast.
South Africa
South Africa is another of those nations which has a relatively low number of Covid-19 cases and deaths at present, but is likely to be disproportionately affected in economic terms by the pandemic. JP Morgan has named South Africa as one of the five countries likely to be hardest hit and many experts agree. The nation is currently under one of the strictest lockdowns in the world.
South Africa
Manufacturing is in limbo, exports have plummeted, consumer spending is at rock bottom, tourism has all but stopped and foreign capital inflows are drying up. The country's central bank says GDP is predicted to fall by up to 4% and unemployment is set to surge, despite the government's multi-pronged relief package.
Germany
Germany has the fourth highest number of Covid-19 cases in the world and the third highest in Europe after Italy and Spain, but the mortality rate in the country has been mercifully low. A lockdown is in place but plans are afoot to lift restrictions in several phases, which should help work wonders on the German economy, which is in a major coronavirus-related slump.
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Germany
Everything from exports to tourism is kaput and Germany's benchmark stock market index has dropped by 29% since the beginning of the year. Unemployment is increasing, though not to the levels seen in countries with less robust job protections, and GDP is expected to fall by 5.4% in 2020, according to the government's economic advisers. However, like France, Germany can boost its $173 billion (£141bn) stimulus package with money from the EU, a factor that should speed up the recovery.
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UK
Only seven other countries have recorded more Covid-19 cases than the UK, which is grappling with a high death toll too. The British government has responded by introducing a nationwide lockdown, and is seeking to soften the economic impact of the pandemic with a record £65.5 billion ($80.65bn) package protecting the National Health Service, businesses and jobs. In the meantime the Bank of England has cut interest rates to 0.1%, the lowest level ever.
UK
The economic impact has been tough so far. The FTSE 100 is down 29% compared to the start of January, the pound has fallen sharply against the dollar and euro, businesses including big names such as airline Flybe and department store chain Debenhams have gone bust or on the brink of collapse and the jobless figure is rising. In one of the worst-case scenarios, Britain's GDP could fall by 7.8% and unemployment leap to six million, or 21% of the workforce, a higher rate than during the Great Depression, said economists at financial company Nomura.
USA
The US is the current epicentre of the pandemic with more cases than any other country, though Italy and Spain have recorded more deaths to date. Albeit not as tough as those in China, India or South Africa, lockdown measures are widely in place across the nation which, along with other factors such as low oil prices, are clobbering the economy. This year the S&P 500 has gone from record highs to record drops and the Dow Jones, the country's other key index, has had its worst quarter in history.
USA
Key US industries including aviation, hospitality and retail are in dire straits. Unemployment numbers are skyrocketing and could overtake Great Depression levels, and GDP may fall 38% in Q2, forecasts Morgan Stanley. Now for the good news. The recent interest rate cut and $2 trillion (£1.6tn) stimulus package, the biggest in history, coupled with the economy's fierce resilience, should see it through the worst, although many analysts are no longer predicting a fast 'V-shaped' recovery.
India
At the time of writing India has recorded just three cases and 0.09 deaths per million population compared to Spain's 2,888 cases and 282 deaths per million, but the country's government is taking no chances having imposed one of the most stringent lockdowns on the planet. India's economy is reeling and faces its biggest-ever challenge, analysts warn.
India
The country's stock market has dipped 33% since the beginning of 2020, more than any other featured in our round-up. GDP growth is set to fall to its lowest level for 40 years and job losses could run into the tens of millions, putting many at risk of hunger. The Indian government has stepped up with a $22.5 billion (£18.3bn) relief package, but some experts believe more cash needs to be set aside to deal with the outbreak and aftermath.
Mexico
A total of 41 countries have recorded more Covid-19 cases than Mexico. Despite this relative paucity of sufferers, the nation's government has stopped non-essential activities and banned groups of 50 people or more. Needless to say, the Mexican economy is paying a heavy price for this and other coronavirus-related upsets ranging from the crashing oil price to near shutdown of the global tourism industry.
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Mexico
Understandably, JP Morgan predicts Mexico's economy will be among the five hardest hit by the pandemic. During the second quarter of this year it is projected to drop by a painful 35.5% and some predict the downturn could be the worst since the Great Depression. The country's government hopes it can coast through without organising a big stimulus package but many experts aren't so optimistic.
Italy
The coronavirus outbreak has wreaked havoc on Italy. Covid-19 cases have increased exponentially over the past few weeks and the nationwide death toll is now the highest in the world. The first country in Europe to impose a blanket lockdown, Italy has been in quarantine since 9 March and its economy is feeling the effects in a catastrophic way.
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Italy
The FTSE MIB, Italy's benchmark stock exchange index, has depreciated by 31% so far this year and GDP for 2020 as whole is likely to contract by 10%, according to the General Confederation of Italian Industry. The country's government has come to the rescue with a $27 billion (£22bn) stimulus package, but needs to concentrate its efforts on saving lives before it can devote itself 100% to reviving the economy.
China
Covid-19 surfaced in Wuhan, China late last year and since then the virus has infected almost 82,000 people in the country and killed 3,331. Lockdown conditions appear to have been effective in containing the spread of the disease and are beginning to ease. Be that as it may, the workshop of the world has been shut down for months.
China
Manufacturing and exports have languished, the stock market has dipped and economic growth is expected to decelerate to its slowest pace since 1976, with the economy forecast to have contracted by 3.7% in the first quarter of the year, according to a poll of economists conducted by Nikkei Asia Review. With a record deficit looming and an estimated 205 million Chinese workers out of a job, the government is pumping trillions of yuan into the economy, but the nation has a long way to go to get itself back on an even keel.
Iran
Coronavirus is devastating the world's most resilient economies never mind the weakest. Weighed down by biting international sanctions, Iran's finances were in a terrible state before the disease arrived in the country, which currently has the seventh highest number of cases worldwide. Low oil prices are hurting the economy bad and the national lockdown, which is being gradually relaxed already to try to stimulate the economy, has damaged consumer spending, travel, manufacturing, and more.
Iran
Unemployment is mushrooming and GDP could decline by a third, creating a $10 billion (£8.2bn) deficit. The situation has become so critical, the Iranian government has asked the IMF for a $5 billion (£4.1bn) loan, the first time the powers that be have requested financial assistance since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The money will go towards Iran's $23.8 billion (£19.5bn) coronavirus relief package, which includes support for businesses and individuals affected by the pandemic.
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Spain
Spain has recorded the highest number of coronavirus deaths per capita out of all the countries in our round-up and trails only the US in total Covid-19 cases. The nation's strict lockdown, which began on 14 March, has been extended to 25 April, and may have to be lengthened further. Many of Spain's key industries have shut down, including the tourism sector, which accounts for up to 15% of the country's GDP.
Spain
The Spanish stock market has fallen by 32% since the beginning of January. The ranks of the nation's unemployed, which were already the second highest in Europe behind Greece, have swelled by 900,000 and the speed with which the jobs have been lost is unprecedented. The government has announced a $216 billion (£177bn) relief package which represents 20% of GDP, but if the lockdown persists into July, one of the worst-case scenarios suggested, Spain's economy could contract by almost 10%, says Nuno Fernandes, Professor of Finance at IESE Business School.
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