China crisis: why the global economy needs a rethink
How Western countries are re-evaluating their trading ties with the Asian power
The coronavirus pandemic, which led to the shut down of factories in China and huge disruption to global supply chains, has brought to the fore the West's over-dependence on the nation, prompting liberal democracies to reassess their trading relationships with the Asian power. Click or scroll through to read our exploration of the crisis and highlight why the global economy might need a rethink.
The pandemic exposed Western over-dependence
Unsurprisingly, as the countries of the world sought to fight the pandemic, the West's over-reliance on China was soon exposed. At the height of the outbreak in China, factories across the nation were shuttered, halting production of goods bound for the West. The knock-on effect on global supply chains was swift and profound, leading to worries over shortages of goods ranging from essential medicines to cars and iPhones.
Western vulnerability
In fact, China has over the years monopolised global supply chains, which the West has more or less facilitated in exchange for cheap goods. Politicians in the US and other Western countries are now decrying this dominance, which they believe puts their respective nations in a vulnerable position. “Already, many countries were thinking about the dangers of putting all their eggs in one basket, and beginning to reduce their dependence on China,” says University of Chicago political scientist Dali Yang. “The pandemic truly hits the nail on the head and drives home the message really hard.”
America's reliance on China
The US was involved in a protracted trade conflict with China before the virus hit, with around 56 companies moving factories out of China to countries like Vietnam and Thailand between April 2018 and August 2019 to avoid the higher trade tariffs imposed during the war. Despite these difficulties, the world's number one economy is still dependent on China for 424 categories of goods, of which 114 are critical for national infrastructure. America imports more goods and services from China than any other country, with China accounting for 17.8% of total imports, and is a net importer across all market segments apart from agriculture. In monetary terms, this represents $478.8 billion (£390.2bn) worth of goods and services.
China's dominance of the supply of America's meds
Perhaps unsurprisingly, computers and electronics is the top category for America's China imports, but less known is America's dependence on China for medicines. According to the New York Times, Chinese pharmaceutical companies supply more than 90% of America's antibiotics, ibuprofen and hydrocortisone, and produce the lion's share of other essential medications. They include drugs that treat conditions such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's, depression and epilepsy.
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China's threats to cut US drug exports
Amid the coronavirus pandemic relations between the US and China have become difficult. In response to moves from the US government to retaliate against China for the outbreak, such as a China travel ban and president Trump describing coronavirus as the "Wuhan virus", in late March the Chinese government threatened to announce strategic controls over medical products and ban exports, effectively cutting America's supply of essential drugs, which would prove catastrophic for the country.
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US exports to China
In terms of America's exports, China trails behind America's USMCA (formerly NAFTA) partners Canada and Mexico, but the US's trading relationship with the Asian nation is crucially important making up 7.7% of exports worth $169.8 billion (£138.5bn) to the US economy. All in all, US trade with China accounts for some $648.9 billion (£529.2bn) annually and the deficit totals $309 billion (£252.6bn).
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The EU's reliance on China
The European Union (EU) is even more dependent on China for imports. The Asian power is the bloc's premier import partner, accounting for 19% of its imports in 2019, which are worth €362 billion ($403bn/£327.5bn) a year. Among member states, the Netherlands is the largest importer of Chinese goods and services, while Luxembourg is the most reliant, with Chinese goods and services making up 42.7% of the country's imports. The EU's top imports from China are industrial and consumer goods, machinery and equipment, and footwear and clothing.
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EU needs Chinese pharmaceuticals
And it's not just the US that relies on China for pharmaceuticals, the EU also rely massively on China for drugs. The European Commission's vice president Vera Jourova recently described the reliance on China for pharmaceuticals as a “morbid dependency”.
EU exports to China
China is the third most important market for EU exports with the Asian country accounting for 7% of the trading bloc's exports in 2019. The US is the bloc's primary export market representing 18% of total exports, followed by the UK, which represents 15%. In total, the EU's exports to China are worth €198 billion ($221n/£179bn) (based on 2019 figures) with a deficit of €164 billion ($183bn/£148bn). Germany exports more goods to the China than any other member state.
The UK's reliance on China
The UK is less dependent on China than the US and EU for trade according to the Office for National Statistics. Nonetheless China is a major trading partner for the European country. Imports-wise, China is the UK's fourth most important partner after Germany, the US and the Netherlands. The UK imported £44.7 billion ($55bn) worth of goods and services from China in 2018, according to UK government data. That represented 6.6% of the UK's imports that year.
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UK exports to China
China is the UK's sixth most important export partner after the US, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Ireland. The latest statistics show that Britain exports goods and services to China worth £22.6 billion ($27.8bn) a year. Like the US and EU, and indeed many other trading blocs and countries in the West, the UK runs a deficit with China, which was at £22.1 billion ($27.2bn) in 2018.
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China's best friend?
The UK has been described as China's “best friend” in the West but the country's relationship with Beijing is under strain. Britain's security services have urged the government to bolster controls on strategic industries, UK politicians are calling for tighter takeover rules following an attempted Chinese boardroom coup at a British tech company and the government has launched a review examining its decision to allow Huawei telecoms equipment to be used in the nation's 5G networks.
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Canada's reliance on China
Similarly, Canada's trade gap with China is pronounced – the country's highest deficit is with China – and has widened over the years as exports of raw materials have decreased. Last year Canada imported $56.5 billion (£46.1bn) worth of goods and services from China, making the Asian country second only to the US when it comes to imports.
Canada's exports to China
As might be expected, the US is Canada's most important export market by far making up a whopping 75.4% of the country's exports. This translates to $336.8 billion (£275.1bn) worth of goods and services. Still, China remains Canada's second biggest export market. It is worth $17.5 billion (£14.3bn) annually and represents 3.9% of the nation's exports.
Australia's reliance on China
Out of all the countries in the West, Australia is the most dependent on China. According to the latest available figures, Australia imports more goods and services from China than any other country with the Asian nation accounting for 18% of Aussie imports. It imports 595 categories of goods from China, including 167 that are vital for Australia's national infrastructure.
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Australia's exports to China
China is an even more crucial export partner with the country representing 32.7% of Australia's exports. In total these exports are worth $89.2 billion (£72.9bn) and account for a sizeable chunk of the nation's GDP. The country's top exports to China are iron ores and concentrates followed by coal, natural gas, gold and beef. Unlike many other Western countries, Australia incurs a large surplus with China.
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China's tariffs on Aussie imports
It's not just the US that has been subject to trade-related threats from China. China has penalised key trading partner Australia after the country's government called for a probe into the origins of COVID-19 by slapping tariffs of 80% on Aussie barley exports, a decision that is set to cost the land Down Under's economy as much as $500 million (£406m) a year.
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Other Western countries' dependence on China
It's a similar story for other countries in the West including Switzerland and New Zealand, which rely heavily on trade with China to fuel their economies. Unravelling these trading relationships, which are based on complex supply chains that have been developed over many years, clearly won't happen over night.
Major supplier of auto parts
As well as producing a significant quantity of the world's medicines, China also manufactures a bewildering amount of goods Western countries rely heavily upon. The Asian country is one of the world's major auto parts suppliers meaning the shut down of plants in China has impeded the production of vehicles in the West, which is yet another factor that is prompting Western countries to reconsider their trading relationships with the country.
The West's moves to distance itself from China
Western nations are already in the process of distancing themselves from China economically in a number of ways, from initiating stricter foreign direct investment (FDI) rules to moving manufacturing to other nations, though as we've mentioned the process is likely to be long, complex and very drawn out given how intertwined the trading and other economic relationships are.
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Stricter FDI rules
Several Western countries including Canada, Italy, Spain and Germany have beefed up their FDI rules to prevent state-controlled Chinese companies from taking over domestic companies, and other liberal democracies are no doubt likely to follow suit.
Huawei bans
Concerned a country potentially hostile to the West could use the global 5G network for nefarious purposes such as espionage and in an extreme situation, to take down an entire nation's networks, a slew of Western democracies have for national security reasons moved to ban the Chinese state-linked company Huawei from supplying telecoms equipment. They include the US, Australia and New Zealand.
Freezing out Chinese firms
Western countries are also moving to freeze out state-controlled Chinese companies from free trade agreements by incorporating transparency and privacy standards which these firms contravene, and making these rules a key prerequisite of the contracts, another factor that will likely disrupt the flow of trade between China and the West.
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Manufacturing moves away from China
As supply chains have been disrupted, analysts have suggested that US companies could move their manufacturing operations out of China and into Mexico, a process that is already happening in fact. According to geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan, Mexican manufacturing is less expensive and more efficient than China's, and due to the country's proximity to the US, likely to be more eco-friendly to boot. European firms could do much the same thing by relocating operations to countries such as Albania.
India's rise
India has the advantage of being a fully-fledged democracy with values that are compatible with the West, not to mention a highly educated English-speaking workforce, and is well-positioned to assume China's role as workshop of the world. However, Western countries will be cautious not to concentrate manufacturing in any one country. In any case, India is already rising to the challenge, having set aside a plot of land the size of Luxembourg to offer to manufacturers wanting to relocate out of China.
Other possible manufacturing hubs
A number of other countries could end up replacing China as major manufacturing hubs supplying developed countries looking to diversify supply chains and reduce their dependency on the Communist country with goods and services. They include Vietnam, Bangladesh, Turkey and Brazil. Again, the idea would be to spread manufacturing, especially of essential goods, far and wide, rather than focussing on any one country.
Reverse globalisation
But what would the result of the West distancing itself from China mean for the Asian country? Reverse or 'gated' globalisation could hit the Chinese economy hard and undermine the government's Made in China 2025 strategic plan and super-ambitious Belt & Road Initiative, which involves the creation of a new overland and maritime Silk Road linking China with Europe and Africa.
China's uncertain future
In fact, some commentators argue that a trade 'Cold War' and reversal of globalisation as we know it could even represent an existential threat to China. Slowing economic growth caused by an all-out trade conflict, coupled with the ticking demographic time bomb where China could experience an era of negative population growth brought about by China's now-defunct one-child policy (ended 2015), could lead to social unrest as people become poorer and in the worst case scenario could result in the break-up of the country. In fact, despite the fact families are now allowed to have two children, lack of government monetary support for parents has meant that many couples can't afford to have one child and the birth rate has fallen to the lowest level in seven decades.
Hit to Western economies
The West also stands to lose out in a major way if it distances itself too much from China, particularly the most dependent countries such as neearby Australia. Western companies would miss out on China's enormous and lucrative domestic market, which holds Western products in high esteem, and the entire planet could end up poorer as a result. Whatever happens, it is likely that the trading relationship between China and the West will never be the same again.
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