The coronavirus pandemic, which led to the shut down of factories in China and huge disruption to global supply chains, has brought to the fore the West's over-dependence on the nation, prompting liberal democracies to reassess their trading relationships with the Asian power. Click or scroll through to read our exploration of the crisis and highlight why the global economy might need a rethink.
Unsurprisingly, as the countries of the world sought to fight the pandemic, the West's over-reliance on China was soon exposed. At the height of the outbreak in China, factories across the nation were shuttered, halting production of goods bound for the West. The knock-on effect on global supply chains was swift and profound, leading to worries over shortages of goods ranging from essential medicines to cars and iPhones.
In fact, China has over the years monopolised global supply chains, which the West has more or less facilitated in exchange for cheap goods. Politicians in the US and other Western countries are now decrying this dominance, which they believe puts their respective nations in a vulnerable position. “Already, many countries were thinking about the dangers of putting all their eggs in one basket, and beginning to reduce their dependence on China,” says University of Chicago political scientist Dali Yang. “The pandemic truly hits the nail on the head and drives home the message really hard.”
The US was involved in a protracted trade conflict with China before the virus hit, with around 56 companies moving factories out of China to countries like Vietnam and Thailand between April 2018 and August 2019 to avoid the higher trade tariffs imposed during the war. Despite these difficulties, the world's number one economy is still dependent on China for 424 categories of goods, of which 114 are critical for national infrastructure. America imports more goods and services from China than any other country, with China accounting for 17.8% of total imports, and is a net importer across all market segments apart from agriculture. In monetary terms, this represents $478.8 billion (£390.2bn) worth of goods and services.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, computers and electronics is the top category for America's China imports, but less known is America's dependence on China for medicines. According to the New York Times, Chinese pharmaceutical companies supply more than 90% of America's antibiotics, ibuprofen and hydrocortisone, and produce the lion's share of other essential medications. They include drugs that treat conditions such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's, depression and epilepsy.
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Amid the coronavirus pandemic relations between the US and China have become difficult. In response to moves from the US government to retaliate against China for the outbreak, such as a China travel ban and president Trump describing coronavirus as the "Wuhan virus", in late March the Chinese government threatened to announce strategic controls over medical products and ban exports, effectively cutting America's supply of essential drugs, which would prove catastrophic for the country.
In terms of America's exports, China trails behind America's USMCA (formerly NAFTA) partners Canada and Mexico, but the US's trading relationship with the Asian nation is crucially important making up 7.7% of exports worth $169.8 billion (£138.5bn) to the US economy. All in all, US trade with China accounts for some $648.9 billion (£529.2bn) annually and the deficit totals $309 billion (£252.6bn).
The European Union (EU) is even more dependent on China for imports. The Asian power is the bloc's premier import partner, accounting for 19% of its imports in 2019, which are worth €362 billion ($403bn/£327.5bn) a year. Among member states, the Netherlands is the largest importer of Chinese goods and services, while Luxembourg is the most reliant, with Chinese goods and services making up 42.7% of the country's imports. The EU's top imports from China are industrial and consumer goods, machinery and equipment, and footwear and clothing.
And it's not just the US that relies on China for pharmaceuticals, the EU also rely massively on China for drugs. The European Commission's vice president Vera Jourova recently described the reliance on China for pharmaceuticals as a “morbid dependency”.
China is the third most important market for EU exports with the Asian country accounting for 7% of the trading bloc's exports in 2019. The US is the bloc's primary export market representing 18% of total exports, followed by the UK, which represents 15%. In total, the EU's exports to China are worth €198 billion ($221n/£179bn) (based on 2019 figures) with a deficit of €164 billion ($183bn/£148bn). Germany exports more goods to the China than any other member state.
The UK is less dependent on China than the US and EU for trade according to the Office for National Statistics. Nonetheless China is a major trading partner for the European country. Imports-wise, China is the UK's fourth most important partner after Germany, the US and the Netherlands. The UK imported £44.7 billion ($55bn) worth of goods and services from China in 2018, according to UK government data. That represented 6.6% of the UK's imports that year.
China is the UK's sixth most important export partner after the US, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Ireland. The latest statistics show that Britain exports goods and services to China worth £22.6 billion ($27.8bn) a year. Like the US and EU, and indeed many other trading blocs and countries in the West, the UK runs a deficit with China, which was at £22.1 billion ($27.2bn) in 2018.
The UK has been described as China's “best friend” in the West but the country's relationship with Beijing is under strain. Britain's security services have urged the government to bolster controls on strategic industries, UK politicians are calling for tighter takeover rules following an attempted Chinese boardroom coup at a British tech company and the government has launched a review examining its decision to allow Huawei telecoms equipment to be used in the nation's 5G networks.
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As might be expected, the US is Canada's most important export market by far making up a whopping 75.4% of the country's exports. This translates to $336.8 billion (£275.1bn) worth of goods and services. Still, China remains Canada's second biggest export market. It is worth $17.5 billion (£14.3bn) annually and represents 3.9% of the nation's exports.
It's not just the US that has been subject to trade-related threats from China. China has penalised key trading partner Australia after the country's government called for a probe into the origins of COVID-19 by slapping tariffs of 80% on Aussie barley exports, a decision that is set to cost the land Down Under's economy as much as $500 million (£406m) a year.
As well as producing a significant quantity of the world's medicines, China also manufactures a bewildering amount of goods Western countries rely heavily upon. The Asian country is one of the world's major auto parts suppliers meaning the shut down of plants in China has impeded the production of vehicles in the West, which is yet another factor that is prompting Western countries to reconsider their trading relationships with the country.
As supply chains have been disrupted, analysts have suggested that US companies could move their manufacturing operations out of China and into Mexico, a process that is already happening in fact. According to geopolitics expert Peter Zeihan, Mexican manufacturing is less expensive and more efficient than China's, and due to the country's proximity to the US, likely to be more eco-friendly to boot. European firms could do much the same thing by relocating operations to countries such as Albania.
India has the advantage of being a fully-fledged democracy with values that are compatible with the West, not to mention a highly educated English-speaking workforce, and is well-positioned to assume China's role as workshop of the world. However, Western countries will be cautious not to concentrate manufacturing in any one country. In any case, India is already rising to the challenge, having set aside a plot of land the size of Luxembourg to offer to manufacturers wanting to relocate out of China.
But what would the result of the West distancing itself from China mean for the Asian country? Reverse or 'gated' globalisation could hit the Chinese economy hard and undermine the government's Made in China 2025 strategic plan and super-ambitious Belt & Road Initiative, which involves the creation of a new overland and maritime Silk Road linking China with Europe and Africa.
In fact, some commentators argue that a trade 'Cold War' and reversal of globalisation as we know it could even represent an existential threat to China. Slowing economic growth caused by an all-out trade conflict, coupled with the ticking demographic time bomb where China could experience an era of negative population growth brought about by China's now-defunct one-child policy (ended 2015), could lead to social unrest as people become poorer and in the worst case scenario could result in the break-up of the country. In fact, despite the fact families are now allowed to have two children, lack of government monetary support for parents has meant that many couples can't afford to have one child and the birth rate has fallen to the lowest level in seven decades.
The West also stands to lose out in a major way if it distances itself too much from China, particularly the most dependent countries such as neearby Australia. Western companies would miss out on China's enormous and lucrative domestic market, which holds Western products in high esteem, and the entire planet could end up poorer as a result. Whatever happens, it is likely that the trading relationship between China and the West will never be the same again.
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