Shocking truth about how many jobs robots will steal
lovemoney staff
14 March 2017
Robots taking over
We all know a lot of jobs are slowly being taken over by robots. From fruit pickers and lorry drivers to accountants, most industries will be affected to a degree. But studies show that jobs in some countries are at a significantly higher risk from automation than others. Find out which jobs are under threat in your country and the surprising truth about how fast the robot takeover will happen.
Australia: 40% of jobs at risk
Australia has frequently made headlines over the past few years when remote areas have faced severe skills shortages and foreign workers had to be enticed into the country with the promise of tax cuts. But all of that is likely to change in the next 10 to 15 years. A recent study by the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia has found that 40% of the country’s jobs are facing a moderate to high likelihood of disappearing.
Australia: 40% of jobs at risk
The report identified new technologies like cloud services, artificial intelligence and robotics which will change the way Australians work. The report identified jobs that involve “measurement, operation, pattern recognition or manipulation” as the ones likely to be automated in the near future. The good news is that some jobs are definitely safe in Australia: recreational therapists, social workers and choreographers and set designers chief amongst them.
Canada: 42% of jobs at risk
More than 40% of Canadian jobs are at a high risk of being taken over by robots, according to a study by The Brookfield Institute for Innovation + Entrepreneurship at Toronto's Ryerson University. The report claims that, because of rapid advances in artificial intelligence and robotics, the jobs at risk have changed from routine manual tasks to include “cognitive, non-routine tasks”.
Canada: 42% of jobs at risk
The top five occupations most at risk in Canada, based on the number of people working in them and the advancing technology, are retail salespeople, administrative assistants, food counter attendants, cashiers and transport truck drivers. The safest jobs in Canada are registered nurses, elementary and kindergarten teachers, and retail and wholesale trade managers.
Japan: up to 49% of jobs at risk
Japan has been at the forefront of innovation when it comes to humanoid robots. Robot taxi drivers, robot receptionists and even robot newsreaders are being tested. Research by the Nomura Research Centre in Tokyo has concluded that up to half of Japan’s working population could be replaced by these robots and Artificial Intelligence technologies. According to the research, occupations that require creativity and collaboration or negotiation were less likely to be taken over by bots.
Japan: up to 49% of jobs at risk
In Japan, jobs like designers, bartenders, film director, surgeons and songwriters are not at risk, according to the Nomura report. Jobs that can be replaced by robots or AI are those that don’t involve critical thinking or specialist knowledge but focus instead on data analysis or systematic processes. Train drivers, receptionists, oil refinery workers and security guards are all highly likely to be automated in the next two decades.
Germany: 59% of jobs at risk
Close to two-thirds of the German workforce might be at risk from automation in the next two decades. A report by ING-Diba concludes that up to 18 million of the current 30.9 million people currently in full- or part-time employment in the country will lose their jobs due to advancements in technology.
Germany: 59% of jobs at risk
Up to 86% of all German secretaries' and office workers’ jobs might be at risk from the increasing use of digital technologies. Unskilled workers and mechanics, drivers and machine operators are also at risk, with 85% and 69% of jobs threatened respectively.
UK: 15 million UK jobs at medium to high risk
Technological transformation has left the UK somewhere “between Star Trek and the Matrix” according to a report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). The rapid advancement of new technology, particularly computing power, machine learning, artificial intelligence systems, automation, autonomous vehicles, health and resource technologies, and the Internet of Things, will likely mean a transformation in the British social and economic life, the report says.
UK: 15 million UK jobs at medium to high risk
The IPPR thinks that up to 60% of UK retail jobs will likely disappear before 2030. It’s also probable that manufacturing will shrink relative to the overall economy, which means job losses there too; 600,000 are likely to go. On the bright side, education, health and care will probably add over one million jobs by 2030, and the creative sector will also grow to create around one million new positions.
USA: up to 62% of jobs at risk
President Obama shocked Americans with his economic report to Congress in February 2016 when he announced that up 62% of all American jobs were at risk of being taken over by robots. He highlighted that jobs that pay less then $20 (£16) an hour were particularly threatened by rising automation. An Oxford University study concluded that jobs like telemarketing, insurance underwriting and cargo and freight operating jobs have a 99% probably of being automated.
USA: up to 62% of jobs at risk
In the USA cargo and freight jobs are a particular concern as truck, delivery and tractor drivers are the most common jobs in 30 states, according to research by IPUMS-CPS/ University Of Minnesota. On the other hand, computer software developers and elementary and primary school teachers also make up an enormous percentage of the workforce in seven states, and the Oxford University study suggests these jobs are not likely to be going to robots just yet.
India: 68% of jobs at risk
India is in a unique position to benefit from the rise of automation. Its information and technology sector accounts for close to 7.5% of India’s GDP and employs close to 2.5 million people. A lot of the exciting new tech that is making the robot revolution possible comes from India. However, even the jobs in IT are now under threat. A report by brokerage firm Centrum concluded that top IT companies are hiring less because of their aggressive pursuit of automation.
India: 68% of jobs at risk
In 2015 alone the top five IT companies in the country hired 24% fewer employees than the year before. The biggest losers in India’s rapidly developing IT industry are recent graduates employed at the lowest levels. “Bots will enable humans to focus on the higher end of the pyramid and substantially cut flab at the bottom of the pyramid,” the Centrum report said.
Thailand: 72% of jobs at risk
Though Thailand is one of the strongest economies in south-east Asia, most of its workforce is educated to a low standard and 86% of workers are employed in low- or medium-skilled occupations, according to a study by ASEAN. Only 15% of jobs are considered to be at low risk from automation. Crop farmers, shop sales assistants and livestock and dairy farmers are hugely under threat from automation in Thailand, ASEAN says.
Thailand: 72% of jobs at risk
However, Thailand is not faring as badly as some of its neighbors. Among the ASEAN-5 (biggest countries in South East Asia), the share of jobs with a high probability of automation is lowest in Thailand (44%) and highest in Vietnam (70%). Generally schoolteachers, construction managers and shopkeepers are generally considered safe occupations.
China: 77% of jobs at risk
China has long been cast as the villain in the rise of robotics, stealing manufacturing jobs away from developed nations. But now the tables are turning as up to 77% of Chinese jobs are at risk of being taken by robots. “Our country will be the biggest market for robots,” said President Xi Jinping in 2014, in a speech at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. And he has kept that promise.
China: 77% of jobs at risk
According to the International Federation of Robotics, China has bought more industrial robots than any other country in the world. Today China has just 36 robots per 10,000 workers, but the government-backed “robot revolution” wants that number to be much higher. In China, labor costs come to around £9 ($11) an hour and, while that is very low compared to Europe, where the average is closer to £40 ($49), an industrial robot only costs £4 ($5) to operate, putting many manufacturing jobs at risk.
Cambodia: 78% of jobs at risk
Cambodia remains amongst the least developed countries in the world, and in south-east Asia it lags behind its neighbors in education levels and GDP. One of its key industries is garments, with lots of products destined for Europe and North America manufactured here. However, according to ASEAN, 88% of jobs in this industry are under threat as the use of robots in this sector increases.
Cambodia: 78% of jobs at risk
Some jobs in Cambodia are considered relatively safe from the robot revolution, according to ASEAN. Shopkeepers, handicraft workers (wood and basketry), teachers and police officers should keep their jobs for now.
The big picture: 57% of jobs at risk
Sales of industrial robots are growing exponentially all over the world. The year 2015 (the last year there is reliable data for) saw the highest-ever volume of sales ever recorded. According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), robot sales soared by 15% to 253,748 units, by far the highest level ever recorded for one year.
The big picture: 57% of jobs at risk
The use of robots has been increasing particularly fast in the electronics industry (up 41%) and the metal industry (up 39%) globally. China was by far the biggest buyer of robots in 2016, acquiring almost double the number of robots as all of Europe put together, according to the IFR. China is expected to order over 285,000 new robots a year by 2019, the IFR predicts.
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