Companies facing a make or break 2019
Natalie Marchant
21 December 2018
Companies facing a tough time
Amid uncertainty about Brexit and as an ongoing trade dispute between the US and China hits industries worldwide, we look at the companies facing a challenging time next year. Are these companies facing a make or brake 2019?
General Motors
Detroit-based General Motors (GM) last month announced it would close seven factories and axe more than 14,000 staff worldwide by the end of 2019. However, this move to combat weakening US sales and the increasing steel and aluminium tariffs was intended to cut $6 billion (£4.74bn) in costs, and saw shares jump by 5%.
General Motors
GM's CEO, Mary Barra, renowned for being unsentimental about holding on to brands that don't make money, also revealed that one-time family favourites, such as the Chevrolet Cruze, were destined for the chopping block. The cuts are all part of a withdrawal that began with GM quitting major global markets such as the UK and Europe. But, as Autocar reported, GM is still one of the most profitable car companies worldwide, and the latest cuts are likely to make it more profitable still.
Huawei
Chinese consumer tech giant Huawei may be the second biggest smartphone maker in the world, but it has been stung by fears over risks associated with its network gear. Unlike other big Chinese tech firms, the company does most of its business overseas. However, US intelligence agencies claim its equipment could contain "backdoors" for use by government spies. The US, Australia and New Zealand have already banned it from future 5G networks, with other countries considering doing the same.
Huawei
Huawei is still on target to ship 200 million smartphone units this year despite cybersecurity fears, but in a bid to improve its overseas standing, the company recently said it would invest $2bn (£1.5bn) on cybersecurity over five years. Another threat to the business is the recent detention of its CFO, Sabrina Meng Wanzhou, over alleged bank fraud in relation to breaching US sanctions on Iran, reported the South China Morning Post. The arrest caused shares in the smartphone maker to plummet.
Social media giant Facebook posted mixed third-quarter results, with daily active user and monthly active user estimates all falling short of analysts' expectations – although it did exceed forecasts on earnings per share. But Facebook still faces ongoing concerns over privacy and the spreading of misinformation. It is being sued by Washington DC over the Cambridge Analytica scandal and the New York Times reported that it gave some tech firms greater access to data than it had disclosed.
CEO Mark Zuckerberg – pictured left – said Facebook planned to invest significantly in the company in 2019, including developing new products such as Instagram TV and Facebook Watch. He also added that he knew costs and revenue needed to be better matched over time. But Matthew Schettenhelm, of Bloomberg Intelligence, said the privacy concerns still cloud Facebook. The real risk of the Washington DC lawsuit was that it could be the first of many by states in the US, he added.
Air France-KLM
Recently appointed CEO of Air France, Anne Rigail, may be the first woman to lead the airline but she faces some tough challenges ahead. Rigail will oversee pay negotiations with pilots and cabin crew, as the carrier seeks to draw a line under strikes that have cost millions of euros, compromised consumer trust and led to the resignation of the CEO of parent company Air France-KLM. However, she may benefit from a recent change in leadership at the top of the main cockpit union.
Air France-KLM
In October, Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith vowed to pursue an "innovative" strategy after the group posted a third-quarter operating profit of $122 billion (€1.07bn/£970m), 6.7% down on last year. Both Air France and KLM saw profits fall, although the Dutch carrier's 18% margin was well ahead of its French partner, which further stoked tensions between the two airlines. In its own 31 October outlook, it said the global context remained uncertain amid the geopolitical climate and global fuel rises.
RWE
German power company RWE reported weaker profit as it sought to follow Germany's move away from nuclear and coal projects, although did stick to its full-year earnings and dividend targets. In November, it reported stand-alone adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the nine months through September slumped 27%, to $1.3 billion (€1.14bn/£1.03bn).
RWE
RWE bosses are on the back foot over strong public opposition to mine a section of the 12,000-year-old Hambach Forest for lignite. Shares dropped 8% when a court blocked the mining, until a final verdict in 2020. Investors also had concerns about the company's exposure to Germany's phase-out of coal. Plus RWE's plans to absorb its Innogy subsidiary into rival EON as part of a restructuring of the German energy industry may have been unsettled by SSE pulling the plug on a UK energy merger.
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest, is in "terrible shape", according to Mark Whitehouse in a recent opinion piece for Bloomberg. In addition to a series of CEOs trying, and largely failing, to cut costs, revenue has continued to drop. Meanwhile officials around the world are probing its alleged role in various money-laundering schemes. In October, it reported profit before tax of $577.5 million (€506m/£458m) for the third quarter of 2018, down from $1.06 billion (€933m/£844m) last year.
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, pictured left, had to admit that cuts to the investment bank were having a deeper impact than expected. Since he assumed the role earlier this year, the bank has axed 2,300 jobs and aims to lose another 4,700 by the end of next year. While CFO James von Moltke later told analysts that the bank need to expand its cost-cutting plans, saying that its initial target of reducing expenses to $23.97 billion (€21bn/£19bn) by 2021 was not ambitious enough.
GlaxoSmithKline
British pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) posted a strong third quarter for 2018, boosted by strong sales of its shingles vaccine Shingrix. But CEO Emma Walmsley's later announcement that GSK had agreed to buy cancer drug specialist Tesaro for $5.1 billion (£4bn) was poorly received by the market, with Barclays cutting its price target and downgrading its investment rating from "overweight" to "equal weight" and Morgan Stanley rating it "underweight".
GlaxoSmithKline
Walmsley, pictured left, has been trying to reshape the drugs maker after it lagged behind rivals in striking big deals. After taking over in 2017, she vowed to refocus on developing lucrative new prescription drugs and completed a year-long overhaul with a plan to split the Big Pharma firm into two, creating a new $12.4 billion (£9.8bn) consumer health business through a joint venture with US rival Pfizer. The new division will be spun off within three years, with GSK retaining a 68% stake.
Tata Motors
Indian car maker Tata Motors has watched stocks drop this year amid low sales, downgrades by ratings agencies and a crisis in its British unit, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which it bought out in 2008. In July, it reported its first quarterly loss for nearly three years, in part due to Jaguar selling less of its luxury cars in China. But JLR CEO Ralf Speth remained positive, saying that he expected sales and financial results to improve over the remainder of the financial year.
Tata Motors
But Tata Motors subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) is expected to cut thousands of jobs in 2019 as part of a $3.16 billion (£2.5bn) turnaround plan. JLR, which has also been hit by decreased diesel demand and expensive Brexit preparations, posted a $113.8 billion (£90bn) loss in the third quarter and it has already shed a thousand jobs in the UK. Analysts predict that up to 5,000 jobs may go, with Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu telling the Financial Times: "It’s do or die at the moment."
Ford
US carmaker Ford's third-quarter results beat expectations, thanks in large part to strong truck sales offsetting poor passenger car volumes. But it also saw net income drop to $1bn (£790m) from $1.6bn (£1.3bn) a year earlier. Ford now reportedly plans to end production of vehicles including the Mondeo and S-Max models, to focus on more lucrative sport utility vehicles, as part of a planned operational $11billion (£8.7bn) restructuring announced earlier this year.
Ford
Ford's stock performance has remained underwhelming, and it continues to struggle more than some rivals in the changing car industry. In a bid to cut costs, Ford is in talks with German rival Volkswagen over vans and, possibly, self-driving vehicles. But like other US vehicle manufacturers, Ford faces declining overall sales, and will need to adapt accordingly.
EDF
Energy giant EDF has been told by the French government to put together plans for structural changes to make the state-run utility more efficient. Some analysts speculated that such changes could lead to some of EDF's assets being put in subsidiaries. The announcement came after ministers unveiled proposals to reduce the country's reliance on nuclear power. But French environment minister François de Rugy said the move was "not about dividing up EDF".
EDF
The future of EDF is a politically sensitive issue in France, where it has long been a symbol of the country's industrial might and a leader in nuclear technology, reported Reuters. The consideration of its restructuring saw shares plunge by about 4%. EDF has also faced problems abroad including outages at its Hunterston nuclear plant in the UK and delays at a reactor in Finland.
Goldman Sachs
US investment bank Goldman Sachs recently saw its stock slump to a two-year low thanks to its increasing proximity to the scandal over Malaysian state fund 1MDB. Malaysia is reportedly seeking some $7.5bn (£5.9bn) in damages in the first criminal action brought over the scandal. Goldman Sachs has repeatedly denied wrongdoing. News of the lawsuit came just a month after it beat estimates for third-quarter profits on the back of stronger-than-expected investor banking.
Goldman Sachs
Former Goldman Sachs executives Tim Leissner and Roger Ng have been charged both by Malaysia and the US. Leissner has also been banned from Singapore's securities industry for life after pleading guilty in the US for conspiring to launder 1MDB money and violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Analyst Jeff Harte, of Sandler O'Neill & Partners, said it was hard to quantify the impact the charges will have but the bank will likely increase the amount of cash put aside for handling the issues.
Bayer
German pharmaceutical firm Bayer last month announced it would axe 12,000 jobs to cut costs and regain investor confidence after a number of legal setbacks relating to its $63billion (£49.8bn) acquisition of Monsanto. It also said it would sell its animal health products unit, Dr Scholl foot care line and its 60% stake in service provider Currenta. Bayer added that cuts would lead to yearly savings of $2.97 billion (€2.6bn/£2.3bn) from 2022, with one-off costs of about $5 billion (€4.4bn/£4bn).
Bayer
Bayer's shares have plunged over a third this year, with many analysts pinning the blame on Monsanto's weedkiller RoundUp lawsuits. In August, a US groundskeeper was awarded $289 million (£228m) in damages from the seed giant after he claimed it helped cause his terminal cancer, although that was later reduced to $78 million (£61.6m). Monsanto now faces 8,700 similar lawsuits.
Sears
Bankrupt US department store chain Sears faces an uncertain future. The Illinois-based company filed for bankruptcy in October and is now searching for someone to buy its assets, including about 100 stores, in a bid to keep Sears and KMart shops open. However, Sears's lawyers also said it would consider bidders who would seek to shut the company down. A final decision on its future will be determined by US Bankruptcy Court Judge Robert Drain, who will consider its holiday sales.
Sears
Sears, which was first established in 1893, has already indicated that its holiday sales are not going as hoped. In October, the retailer filed a budget that forecast sales of $1.7bn (£1.3bn) in the seven-week holiday shopping period. However, its later sales forecasts dropped by $225m (£178m). It hoped to rake in a net $50m (£40m) in cash in the week running up to Christmas. But if it fails to do so, Christmas really will prove to be the make or break period for the 125-year-old retailer.
BT
UK telecoms company BT recently posted mixed half-year earnings, a 2% drop in revenue to $14.66 billion (£11.59bn), although adjusted earnings were higher. In November, departing CEO Gavin Patterson said that the results showed his recovery plan was working, adding that the company was transforming his operating model, speeding up roll-out of full-fibre networks and improving customer service. BT announced a shake-up in May to address an accounting scandal and a poor customer service record.
Tesco
Major UK retailer Tesco's shares dropped 8% in October, after it missed its first-half profit forecasts. This was largely attributed to weak trading in Poland and Thailand eclipsing sales growth in its domestic market. Tesco, which has made changes after a 2014 accounting scandal, said it was "firmly on track" to meet medium-term targets after reporting underlying operating profit of $1.18 billion (£933m) – up 24% on last year but short of analysts’ average forecast of $123.7 billion (£978m).
BT
But in a year that has seen the company's stocks slide 30%, Patterson's – pictured left – bonus of more than $1.26 million (£1m) has been criticised by some shareholders. BT has since announced it will make changes to how it calculates management pay, and Patterson will shortly be replaced by Philip Jansen, of Worldpay. The telecoms giant is also one of a number of British firms facing a "Brexit premium" in euro borrowing costs, ahead of the country's withdrawal from the EU.
Tesco
There was good news for Tesco in November when two former directors were acquitted of fraud and false accounting at the supermarket chain in 2014. But Tesco goes into 2019 facing challenges from budget retailers Aldi and Lidl, and lower consumer spending ahead of Brexit. There are also fears the proposed merger between rivals Sainsbury's and Asda could see Tesco overtaken as UK market leader, but analysts are confident that it will outperform the market, as reported in the Financial Times.
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