The recession has finally come to an end! But don't think your financial situation will improve any time soon....
So the recession is officially over. After six straight quarters of negative growth, or 18 gloomy months of seeing our national output wither and contract, the economy has finally started to rise again.
Well a big fat genuine hooray for that.
But before you start pinning up the bunting, dancing in the streets and erecting statues to our glorious leader Gordon Brown, let's take a closer look at what this actually means.
Goodbye to all that
On the bright side, this is a pleasantly symbolic moment. All bad things come to an end, and the longest recession on record is over, kaput, finito. Well, for now anyway, with a possible double dip later this year.
But while the recession officially ended in the final quarter of 2009, it was a close run thing. The economy grew a pale and poxy 0.1% against the bright and rosy 0.4% anticipated by most economists. And that's despite the Bank of England slicing the base rate almost to zero and printing £200 billion in a bid to move things along.
Only 40% of the data is in, so that 0.1% could be revised upwards in the months to come. Alternatively, it could be revised downwards, which would mean the recession isn't actually over at all, and we'll have even more to grumble about.
Last to the line
Either way, it is a lousy performance. Like an exhausted marathon runner, the British economy just flopped over the line, limping badly and with its knees about to go. Worse, it came in a distant last, beaten by the rest of the G7. The US, France and Germany crossed the line last summer, when we were all still dreaming of a barbecue summer.
The pound, which had risen to its feet on Tuesday morning in anticipation of a strong finish, slumped back into its seat. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, who were ready to invade the track waving flags and claiming glory, must be similarly deflated.
They will be biting their nails in the run-up to the next set of quarterly figures, which may appear just before the election.
Recession and on and on...
The recession may be over, but the economy is still much smaller than it used to be. Output has shrunk a mighty 6% since the credit crunch, so that 0.1% is just a spit in the ocean of loss.
And that is bad news for you and me. It means finding a job will still be hard. Wage rises will be flat or non-existent. Consumers will remain cautious. Mortgage lenders will keep LTVs low and SVRs high. Anybody with a bruised credit record will find it difficult to access finance. Happy days aren't here again.
Until banks regain their appetite for lending, businesses will struggle to find affordable finance, further constraining economic growth.
Even if the recession is over, it won't necessarily feel like it.
The R-word
There is further pain to come after the election, when the new administration hikes taxes and slashes public spending in a desperate bid to balance the books before our public debt spirals out of control.
This will put immense strain on people's pockets, and many will respond by spending less, choking the high street.
It only needs an economic shock anywhere in the world (keep an eye on China), and we'll be back to using the R-word again.
But it isn't all bad news. The insipid nature of the recovery might be good news for borrowers, because the Bank of England won't be in any rush to raise interest rates, which means mortgages should remain cheap.
Unfortunately, this is likely to push property prices higher, so first-time buyers won't be happy. Nor will savers.
If the Bank decides to extend quantitative easing to help the economy along the pound will suffer again, so think twice before booking an expensive holiday in Euroland.
Slow and soggy
Returning to the bright side, perhaps it's a good job that the economy didn't spring from its sickbed in the final quarter of 2009, because that would have given us a false impression of the state of its health.
It might also have brought all sorts of strange and unwelcome things, such as a Brown bounce, a further property surge, a sudden end to the savings renaissance, a stock market bubble and a strengthening pound, none of which the UK economy really needs right now.
What we do need is an extended period of convalescence to get over the traumas of recent months, to build our strength for what is going to be a long, slow road to recovery.
Don't be too depressed, great things will still happen in the next decade, but prepare yourself for a long slog.
The recession is dead. Long live the recession.
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