Beleaguered by its invasion of Ukraine and with economic sanctions biting, some might wonder how Russia is predicted to have any growth at all. The OECD figure is not large, and it’s substantially less than the 3.9% growth that 2024 mustered - though a bit more than the 0.9% expected in 2026. However, all's not quite what it seems.

Russia’s economy appears to defy expectations, but the headline figures don’t mean good times for most Russians. The lion’s share of growth is down to government spending on the war, and that’s boosting inflation, which is currently around the 8% mark. The rouble has lost value and the Central Bank has hiked interest rates to 21% - the highest level in over 20 years. Meanwhile, the cost of living is spiking, with even essentials such as butter rising in price.

It's as if there are two economies in Russia right now: the war economy and the situation for everyone else. Businesses serving the military are enjoying government subsidies and other support. Those who don't are suffering, and the non-war economy may even tip into recession.

How will the biggest and richest economies fare in 2025?