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18 March 2024

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  • 09 August 2022

    well kitsinu - sorry 6 years have passed and still no self-drivng cars

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  • 07 April 2022

    shame you re-published this as it show how wrong kitshinu's predictions were. They are not alone as in2012 Google stopped buying company cars as they said in two years time all cars would be self-driving - still waiting. Problem is the technology still needs human oversight. If they are not actually driving a human's attention is nearly zero

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  • 04 August 2016

    This will come far sooner than in 30 years. In three years, I expect self-driving cars to legally travel the roads without a driver. In five years, I expect there will be no taxi drivers remaining (only chauffeurs). It is expected that by 2034, a desktop computer will have the capacity of the human brain. It doesn't take much of the human brain's capacity to do a simple job like making a hamburger, but there is a lot of money being spent on employing people to make hamburgers. A 40 hour per week employee costs a company like McDonald's 20k per year (wage, training, insurance for the business against liability and equipment), possibly more. 20k is the interest on a 400k loan at 5% interest, so if that employee can be replaced by a 400k robot, the employee will be replaced by a 400k robot if only because robots don't quit the job and need to be replaced. But the robot works 100 hours per week (7 days x 24 hours is 168 hours, but take some time for maintenance and a third of the hours per week are times when people don't buy hamburgers, so call it only 100 hours), which means that a 1 million dollar robot is better than two and a half hamburger making employees if the robot merely works as fast as the employees do. I expect fast food workers to disappear in about ten years. A few supervisors may remain, but even those may be centrally located at corporate headquarters and monitoring multiple restaurants via the internet.

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