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The best- and worst-performing alternative investments over the past year
lovemoney staff
26 September 2017
The high-end collectables getting even more valuable
Looking to invest? You may want to skip the safe haven options such as residential property and gold, and opt instead for art or wine. Knight Frank's Luxury Investment Index has risen in value by 5% over the past year, outperforming many house price indices and the bullion market, with the most coveted objects of desire appreciating by 25%. But it's not all been plain sailing. Bucking the upward trend, certain luxe collectables have been plummeting in value. We take a look at the top 10 risers and fallers.
How the index works
Created in 2013, the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index uses third party data to track the performance of a representative basket of high-end collectables, much like a consumer price index calculates inflation. A must for serious collectors, it analyses the performance of 10 key luxury investment sectors: cars, art, wine, coins, stamps, jewellery, coloured diamonds, Chinese ceramics, watches and antique furniture. Data sources include AMR, Stanley Gibbons, HAGI, Wine Owners and the Fancy Color Research Foundation.
How have safe haven assets performed?
Go-to safe haven assets have performed poorly over the past 12 months. Prime central London property, for instance, has depreciated by 6%. Be that as it may, the market has risen by 38% during the last 10 years. Gold prices have been lacklustre too this past year, falling by 5%, though bullion prices have risen by a massive 362% since 2007. Now let's take a look at the different sectors in more detail.
10th. Chinese ceramics: -12%
Languishing at the bottom of the index, Chinese ceramics have nosedived in value since this time last year, down a hefty 12%. Over the past five years, prices have decreased by 13% overall. The fall-off in demand can be partly attributed to the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Communist Party crackdown on ostentatious displays of wealth.
10th. Chinese ceramics: standout sales
Though overall prices for Chinese ceramics have been falling, the most sought-after pieces are still commanding sky-high prices. A Ming vase sold for 450 times its guide price at a Fellows auction in Birmingham, England earlier this year, and a 900-year-old Song Dynasty dish is expected to fetch a record-breaking $36 million (£26.6m) when it goes under the hammer at Sotheby's Hong Kong in October.
9th. Antique furniture: -3%
Sale prices for antique furniture fell by an average of 3% over the past year, which is actually a marked improvement compared to the five and 10-year figures. Over the last five years, the market has depreciated by 22% overall and prices over the past decade have dropped by 32%.
9th. Antique furniture: standout sales
Like the most desirable Chinese ceramics, the hottest collectable antique furniture can still make for a lucrative investment if you have a good eye for a bargain or the cash to stretch to a standout piece, despite the general downturn in the market. In March, a 1960s table by Diego Giacometti realised $3.2 million (£2.4m) at a Christie's auction in Paris, eclipsing its guide price of $477,000 (£352k), while an octagonal table by the same designer went for $4.6 million (£3.4m).
8th. Coloured diamonds: 0%
Considering investing in some blingy gemstones? Coloured diamonds have stagnated in price overall, but blue diamonds have risen in value by 5.5% over the past year. Conversely, the value of pink diamonds has dropped slightly during the last 12 months.
8th. Coloured diamonds: standout sales
Despite the stagnating prices, several auction records have been smashed this past year. The record for a green stone was set earlier this year when the 18.04-carat 'Rockefeller' emerald sold for $5.5 million (£4.1m) at auction, and the world record for any jewel was broken in April when the famous 'Pink Star' diamond fetched $71.2 million (£52.6m) at a Sotheby's auction in Hong Kong.
7th. Stamps: +1%
Philatelic collectables have risen by a modest 1% in price over the past year, but collecting stamps is a good bet long term if the past 10 years is anything to go by. Since 2007, prices have risen by a not too shabby 103%, according to specialists Stanley Gibbons.
7th. Stamps: standout sales
The most in-demand philatelic rarities fetch ridiculously high prices at auction. Last April, for example, a set of four Indian stamps from 1948 depicting Mahatma Gandhi sold for $677,000 (£500k) at a Stanley Gibbons auction in the UK. The world record was actually set in 2014 when a British Guiana one-cent magenta stamp fetched $9.5 million (£7m) at an auction in New York.
6th. Classic cars: +2%
This past 12 months hasn't been an exceptionally stellar period for classic cars. From dominating the rankings over the past few years, collectable cars have only appreciated in value by 2% since this time last year. Still, prices have risen by a staggering 362% over the past 10 years.
6th. Classic cars: standout sales
Over the last year, run-of-the-mill classic cars have been appreciating only modestly, yet the rarest models have seen a more significant rise in value. Last month, a new world record price for a British car was set when a 1956 Aston Martin DBRI sold for $22.6 million (£16.7m) at an auction in Monterey, California. At the same sale, a McLaren F1 car realised $15.6 million (£11.5m).
3rd (joint). Watches: +4%
Watches are a sure-fire luxury investment, according to the Knight Frank Index. Though prices have appreciated by a decent 4% in the past 12 months, the average value of a high-end collectable watch has risen by a far more impressive 65% over the past decade.
3rd (joint). Watches: standout sales
The most expensive wristwatch ever sold at auction went under the hammer last November at Phillips in Geneva. The stainless steel Patek Philippe timepiece fetched $11.1 million (£8.2m), but the record could very well be broken this October when the holy grail of watches, Paul Newman's Rolex Daytona, comes up for auction in New York.
3rd (joint). Jewellery: +4%
Collectable jewellery rose by 4% in price over the last year and by a substantial 142% during the past decade, according to the Knight Frank Index. Pearls are the top performer but late 19th and early 20th-century jewellery is catching up, particularly prized pieces from the Belle Epoque and Art Deco eras.
3rd (joint). Jewellery: standout sales
Highlights over the past year include a Cartier Belle Epoque necklace that sold for $1.7 million (£1.3m) in June, and a pair of mismatched fancy coloured diamond earrings that netted $57.4 million (£42.4m) at a Sotheby's sale in Geneva in May, making them the most expensive earrings ever sold at auction.
3rd (joint). Coins: +4%
Collectable coins have risen in value by 4% over the past year, but this luxury investment sector has experienced surging prices in recent years. Overall, prices have increased by 182% since 2007. Rare coins from Islamic countries are among the biggest risers, according to the experts.
3rd (joint). Coins: standout sales
A five-part sale of the D. Brent Pogue coin collection that ended in April realised a record-breaking $106.7 million (£78.8m). The top-sellers at the California sale included a rare 1804 silver dollar that fetched almost $3.3 million (£2.4m) and an 1811 half cent that realised $998,750 (£738k).
2nd. Art: +7%
Fine art has appreciated by an average of 7% over the past year, but not all artworks have been rising in price. Impressionist and Old Master painting have actually been falling in value, while prices for contemporary art have been increasing significantly.
2nd. Art: standout sales
This year, several important artist records have been broken. In May, a Jean-Michel Basquiat painting netted a record $110.5 million (£82m) at a Sotheby's auction in New York. A month later, the record for a Kadinksy painting was smashed when Painting with White Lines sold for $47.8 million (£33m) at Sotheby's London.
1st. Wine: +25%
Vintage wine has been the best-performing luxury asset over the past 12 months, according to the Frank Knight Index. All in all, prices have skyrocketed by 25% since this time last year. During the past decade, they have increased by a whopping 231%.
1st. Wine: standout sales
The price increase has been fuelled by robust growth in the Bordeaux, Burgundy and Northern Italian markets. Highlights of the past year include six bottles of a particularly sought-after 1978 Romanée-Conti burgundy, which sold for $110,000 (£81k) last October, and the sale of the world's oldest extant bottle of Madeira, which realised a record $39,000 (£28.8k) last December.
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27 September 2017