Snow `would help prevent double-dip recession'
A white Christmas could stave off a return to recession, economist tells MPs.
A member of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has said that heavy snow this month would help avert the prospect of a double-dip recession.
Professor Stephen Nickell was appearing in front of MPs from the Treasury Select Committee to discuss last week’s Autumn Statement.
He said: “If we have a huge bout of snow that will probably rule out a double-dip recession because GDP will fall in the fourth quarter and then bounce back in the first quarter [of 2012].”
But time is running out for that to happen, although snow has fallen in Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England.
The OBR forecast a dip of 0.1% in the final quarter of this year but 0.1% growth in the first quarter of 2012.
The definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative growth.
The OBR was heavily criticised by the Committee for its forecasting record. It dramatically revised its growth projections last month from its March forecast. “It’s just guessing, isn’t it?” Conservative Michael Fallon asked the three OBR members present.
OBR head Robert Chote defended the office’s record, saying the economic recovery from the last recession had been much weaker than it had thought in March.
Chancellor George Osborne faces the Committee today.
More: Four reasons to be scared | Four things the Chancellor got right
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The snow would not bring the country to a stand still if we would all have winter tyres on the cars and lorries, Streets were free of snow, cleaned away with the right machinery and public transport would still run if we have more than 4 inch of snow! Why do other countries still run in the winter? We are not prepared for the snow, that's what it all comes back to!
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Keep plugging away oldhenry, eventually the majority will come to realise how corrupt this country is. Private Eye gets it wrong occasionally but they do show corruption in high places and not a few low ones too.
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But the politicians were blaming a day off for a royal wedding as the cause of a dip in the GDP a few months ago? This absolutely proves that those in charge have no idea what to do or what will happen. The only agreement thay make is to tax us heavily, cane pensioners but make sure thet MPs pensions are not affected by any measure to curtails other pensions. Self interest rules in this corrupt island and we rail at arab states for their lack of democracy. Just read Private Eye to really see how the country is run.
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09 December 2011