Why base rate hasn't been cut to 0%
The Bank of England has resisted pressure to cut base rate, possibly right down to 0%. Here's why.
Last Thursday, in the latest of its monthly meetings, the MPC again voted to hold the base rate at 0.5% a year. Remarkably, this is the 41st time that the committee has agreed to keep the base rate at this level.
Then again, given the widespread weakness of the British economy, why hasn't the MPC voted to cut the base rate to 0.25% or even zero? After all, the US Federal Reserve openly operates a zero interest rate policy, so why don't we follow suit? Surely millions would benefit?
What's more, almost 60% of you voted that you thought base rate should be cut in our poll last week. Check out Should the base rate be cut to 0.25%?
Winners and losers
By reducing base rate to zero (perhaps by two quarter-point cuts), the Bank of England would provide much-needed support to hard-pressed British businesses and borrowers. In particular, companies and individuals with debts directly linked to base rate would immediately benefit from any future cuts to it.
For example, homeowners with tracker mortgages would immediately and fully benefit from more cuts to base rate, no matter how small. Indeed, home loans with no-margin or negative-margin rates linked to base rate could produce zero or even negative rates. Imagine having a mortgage where your lender pays you!
Likewise, businesses and homeowners with variable-rate loans would eventually enjoy lower rates should further cuts to base rate take place. Even so, lenders will take their time passing on reductions to these borrowers and may not pass on base-rate cuts in full.
Of course, savers would suffer if the base rate did fall to zero. Already, savings rates are at all-time lows, making it tough for British savers to earn decent returns on their spare cash. If base rate hits zero, then I suspect that the majority of UK savings accounts will pay no interest or only the tiniest returns. This will cause further hardship to tens of millions of savers, especially pensioners.
QE: the alternative to cutting base rate
Rather than make further cuts to base rate, the Bank of England has so far resorted to quantitative easing (QE). By electronically 'printing money', the Bank pumps fresh funds into the economy by buying bonds from banks. In theory, this should bring down the cost of borrowing for banks and businesses alike.
In several rounds of QE since March 2009, the Bank has injected a total of £375 billion into the UK money supply. Sadly, this seems to have had little effect, because bank lending remains subdued. Even though banks have more cash on their balance sheets, demand for new loans remains weak.
As a result, QE doesn't seem to have spurred credit growth and has hardly stimulated the economy. Then again, it's hard to know how bad things would have been without QE, which may have restrained the latest recession. Check out Pensioners deserve compensation! for more.
Inflation: the lurking danger
In my view, the ongoing weakness of the UK economy provides more than enough motivation for the Bank of England to cut the base rate again.
For example, if economic growth is negative or zero this quarter, then perhaps the Bank should respond with a 0.25% cut to base rate in October or November. If this weakness continues into the final quarter of 2012, then the Bank could respond with a similar cut in February or March 2013, taking the base rate to an unprecedented 0%.
Then again, I suspect that the Bank is not quite ready to give up on QE just yet by resorting to lowering base rate. This is because it remains afraid of inflation -- the rising cost of living. The Bank's target is to keep inflation at around 2% a year, based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure.
Unfortunately, the bank has done a spectacularly poor job of meeting this goal. Since adopting the CPI target of 2% in December 2003, inflation has been above-target for 70 months out of 103. In other words, the Bank has met its CPI goal less than a third of the time, for a failure rate of 68%.
So while it has room to cut the base rate all the way to 0%, I suspect that the Bank will not act by cutting its base rate this year, even as companies and citizens suffer further hardship!
More on the economy:
No change in base rate or QE
Bank of England: two new stimulus schemes launched
European Commission: Taxpayers to avoid bailing out banks in future
Should we scrap the minimum wage?
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There is a lot of common sense running through this thread. I have said many times on here that we should separate ourselves from the traditional "left/right" politics because there is not a lot of difference between them. Certainly, their policies are different but their representations of the British Public is not. Corruption and self-interest is rife, just as it is in Europe. Tanni, mgbboy55 and Dame have made some excellent points above and it is worth going back and re-reading them. We DO need a government that represents the UK, that stops wasting OUR money on things that we can no longer afford (eg the EU, Arab wars). In my opinion, the capitalist society will work if we allow it to. Unsustainable banks should have gone bust. OK, savers would have lost out but it would be a lesson to all of us not to place our investing faith implicitly in such arrogant corporations in the future. We are told that the Bankers need big bonuses to keep them in this country. Well, if that is the best they can do, stop the bonuses and let them go to Brussels or somewhere else. On reflection of the last 5 or 6 years in banking, we would have been a lot better off if they had gone. People should also remember that central banks are a relatively new thing in the environment of economics. As someone said above, they are there to "protect" the bankers' interests and the government's interests. The bottom line in the UK is that we need to produce goods and sell them. We are a skilled and well-off country - let's use those skills and abilities and let's get rid of the hangers-on. We need a government that is going to represent the UK and my guess is that we will need businessmen to run it, not professional politicians! r.
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Who does represent our interests? I have always thought the ballot paper should carry the option 'None of the above'. That would prove a very interesting turn of events and is much better than just not turning out to vote which can be interpreted as those who don't care. Independents got absolutely no where in the London Mayoral elections, they just crowded out by the noise of the other 3 main parties. It is impossible at present to get into power at a national level unless you belong to one of the main three. The way to do it is is as was suggested in 'A Very British Coup', infiltrate from within!
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None of the current political parties are capable of runnig a tap let alone the country. We require a new party made up of independents from each town and city in the UK. These independents should be ordinary joes or persons of good community standing and have to stand up for their community. No more lobbying firms that treat our MP's to a good time (remember Osbourne holidaying on a fianaciers yacht trying to get funds for his party? Mr Blair advising foriegn businessmen/insituitions whats all this about...in my book this is corruption) These independents can work and HAVE to work for the common good of the citizens of the UK, not the banks, not europe. We are a sovereign nation...it is about time we started acting like one and used our own ways to grow the economy and create jobs. We need to take the lead and stop following. We require a diverse workforce which needs service and manufacturing industries. We should stop relying on our european and american friends to make us things ( Remember the french power firm EDF who was supposed to ensure we have no power shortages in the future: well all thats in the air and forgotten about amongst many other U turns) as even they have shifted their jobs to china and india. None of these countries act in the interest of the people,they only act in the interest of big business. Again this is diliberate attack on our living standards and infrastructure is nothing short of treason. we need to stand up and take the lead before our civil right to vote is also taken away from us. No more north south divide, we must unite and kick these pirates out of the country.
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12 August 2012