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Timing....


Updated on 17 February 2009 | 1 Comment

Timing, they say, is everything, and never more so than when it comes to money.

If you get your timing right, you can make a mint, buying property, shares and other assets at the bottom of the market, and selling them just before their value peaks.

Think of buying a house in Notting Hill in 1995 and selling it for umpteen times its purchase price in the first half of 2007.

Or piling into tech stocks in the late 1990s and flogging them off in February 2000, one month before the bubble messily burst.

I know that The Fool has said many times that timing the market is impossible, and that's probably right. But it is still tempting to try. The rewards are just too compelling.

Sweet, dude

At some point in the next two years there will be a "sweet spot", where house prices have fallen as far as they're going to, give or take, and mortgage rates have done likewise.

Given the rate at which both are tumbling, they could be dramatically below their recent peaks, and at roughly the same time.

There is a theory called buying on the U, which is the point just before the market hits the bottom, when the best properties are still available at low prices. That would be a great time to pick up a reasonably-priced property and pay for it with an ultra-competitive mortgage.

And if you can lock into a low fixed-rate, you can future proof yourself against the inevitability that interest rates will rise sharply from their forthcoming all-time lows.

The current central bank shock treatment, with bases rates heading for zero and printing presses warming up, will eventually spark inflation. When this happens, interest rates will have to shoot back up again before things get too hyper.

So if you do locate the sweet spot - and that's a big if - it might even be worth breaking with tradition and fixing your mortgage for 10 or 15 years, to reap long-term glory from the brief slump in base rates. 

It gets sweeter

In fact, there is likely to be a second sweet spot, and this one is open to many existing homeowners.

This will be the point when base rates have fallen as low as they're going to, and mortgage lenders finally starting to hand out money again. That's unlikely to happen at exactly the same time, but there could be some overlap.

If you can't get a remortgage now, you may be able to get one then, particularly if you have spent the interim shrinking the equity in your property to secure a better loan-to-value.

And again, I'd recommend fixing your mortgage at that point, for at least five years, and maybe longer (make sure it is portable, in case you want to move house in that time).

Of course, not everybody will enjoy these sweet spots. Those who are locked into their existing mortgage, need a high-LTV loan, are suffering from negative equity or have lost their job, will be left feeling sour.

Sugar and spice

First-time buyers, property investors and existing borrowers could all benefit from timing their next purchase or remortgage. 

That said, the rewards could be slow to materialise, because you would be naive to believe the property market will quickly embark on another carefree boom once the current bust is over. The revival could be slow and painful. What's more, I'm not suggesting that people should indulge in short-term speculation. I believe, that the days of treating bricks and mortar like penny shares are over, at least for a time.

But if you want to buy your first home or lock into a great value mortgage, this could be a great opportunity.

The sweet spot is coming, although probably not until 2010 or even 2011, which gives you a bit of time to get your act together. Start saving a deposit or paying down your equity today, and make sure you're in a position to move quickly when the time comes.

Imperfect timing

To get your timing right, you'll have to be a lot cleverer than me (not exactly the most daunting challenge). Or luckier. 

I've tried timing my property moves, with mixed results. I bought my first flat in January 1997, in London, rightly sensing the property market was stirring back into life. Soon after I upgraded to a three-bed terrace and continued to ride the boom until I sold in December 2003.

I was convinced the market had peaked and it was the perfect time to rent (and sample life in coastal Suffolk). My girlfriend was sceptical, but bowed to my greater financial acumen.

Three years later, our old house went on the market for £175,000 more than we got and she brained me.

So I'm hardly infallible, but I'm still convinced that in some point in the next year or two there will be a window of opportunity for some.

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  • 03 January 2009

    Like you Harvey I saw the market overshoot in 2003, however I also appreciated that markets overshoot by a wide margin and need a major trigger to cause a correction. I always believed the market would change direction at some stage due to some event. The event as we now know was a credit contraction which is now being followed by an economic contraction. House prices will fall until either credit resumes, jobs grow or it’s too cheap to ignore and Johnny foreigner piles in at £2 per Euro. By the way I sold my place in 2006 - needed to move for better a senior school and could not find a reasonable place in the area I needed to be in so rented for a year - have to say I hated it, didn't help that the market found a second wind (bear rally) growing a further 10% points! So what did I do? Bought the poorly maintained house we were renting for 20% below market for houses in the area. Hopefully with my DIY skills and the location, location, location mantra (really nice village, top marks secondary school, good communication links, etc), my new home will ride this mother of all storms out with little damage. For any one still sitting on the side lines - stay there and think about a new country before buying a new home!

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