The Last Housing Crash, Part 2

Mortgages and Home

25 January 2008 | 0 Comments

Here's part two of our region-by-region review of the Nineties property slump. Brace yourselves!

In the first part of this article, I looked at how the last property crash panned out across the UK and in six of its twelve regions. For the record, here's how the average price fell over the entire nation: High/LowHouse price (£) Q2 1989 69,850 Q3 1995 61,115 Difference (£) -8,735 Change (%) -12.5 Now let's look at the highs and lows of the remaining six regions: South East High/LowHouse price (£) Q1 1989 106,179 Q4 1992 73,556 Difference (£) -32,623 Change (%) -30.7 It may come as a surprise to many people in the affluent South East just how steeply prices fell in the last bust. In under four years, prices dropped by more than three-tenths (31%), plunging many homeowners into negative equity (when a property is worth less than the mortgage secured on it). So much for the South East being a safe haven when times are tough! South West High/LowHouse price (£) Q1 1989 85,634 Q4 1992 60,522 Difference (£) -25,112 Change (%) -29.3 The South West followed an identical path to its neighbour the South East, peaking in early 1989 and bottoming out at the end of 1992. However, house prices fell slightly less in percentage terms, but were still down nearly three-tenths (29%) in the Nineties collapse. Scotland Like Northern Ireland, Scotland pretty much avoided the last property plunge. Sure, prices wobbled about a bit throughout the Nineties, but the trend never headed resolutely downwards. For the record, prices declined as follows: YearAnnualdecline (%) 1992 -3.0 1994 -0.1 1997 -2.1 2000 -4.3 So, Scots managed to avoid the worst of the UK property depression, but this may not happen again this time around. West Midlands High/LowHouse price (£) Q2 1989 68,931 Q2 1995 60,441 Difference (£) -8,490 Change (%) -12.3 Of all the regions of the UK, the West Midlands most closely reflects the results for the property market as a whole. Prices fell closely in line with the UK average, making this region perhaps the most `average' of all during the last crash. Wales High/LowHouse price (£) Q1 1990 57,453 Q2 1995 49,674 Difference (£) -7,779 Change (%) -13.5 Prices didn't peak in Wales until Spring 1990, and then fell slightly more than the UK as a whole until they began to recover in late 1995. There's nothing remarkable to report here. Yorkshire & Humberside High/LowHouse price (£) Q1 1991 55,928 Q3 1995 50,249 Difference (£) -5,679 Change (%) -10.2 Lastly, we come to the twelfth of our regions. Yorkshire folk have a well-deserved reputation for financial prudence. This may explains why Y&H it performed much better than any other English region, with prices declining by little more than a tenth (10%). So, what conclusions can we draw from the above data? All it tells us is that the UK is far from being a single, homogeneous housing market. Regional differences will always prevail, because housing markets are primarily local beasts. Furthermore, this look back at the past doesn't help us to forecast the future. Then again, as Mark Twain is said to have remarked, "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."More: Find your ideal mortgage via The Fool | How Often Do House Prices Fall? | House Prices And The Double-Edged Sword

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