Property prices to stagnate in 2010
Find out where lovemoney.com readers think property prices are headed.
Last week, we surveyed lovemoney.com readers and collected a fairly representative sample across Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It wasn't a massive survey as it had just 844 respondents but, since we kept our questions quite broad, that's large enough to give us a rough picture of people's confidence in the housing market.
Around 70% of you currently don't consider this market a really strong market for buying or selling property. The remaining 30% are evenly split between whether you would definitely buy in this market or definitely sell (or definitely recommend to friends that they should sell).
This largely correlates with your views on property prices. Around 80% think that house prices over the next 12 months won't move or will barely move in either direction. Of the remainder (who think house prices will move more dramatically), those who think prices will fall outnumbered those who think they will rise by three to one.
Around 60% thought that tracker mortgages are still a better bet, which reflects the huge discount you currently get with trackers over fixed rates, and probably also a belief that rates won't rise for some time. We could perhaps read into this that people are still understandably pessimistic about the economy.
Who can we rely on to call the market?
I've argued before that, in normal times like this, forecasting the property market's next move is extremely difficult and I'm still to find a professional forecaster who has consistently done a good job over a significant number of predictions.
The consensus prediction from our survey is that house prices won't move much over the next 12 months, yet consumers can get predictions wrong as easily as the professionals.
House prices were pushed up by buyers in 2006 and 2007, many of whom will now be in negative equity and, more importantly, will be thinking that it would have been better to keep renting and buy later. Millions more were desperate to get on the ladder as soon as they possibly could afford it and now it seems they were saved by their lack of funds and income.
Others were predicting as early as 2003 and 2004 that prices would fall and refused to buy although they could afford it. Most of them will still be waiting for prices to fall far enough to reward that decision.
These are reasons why I think you should take survey results, as interesting as they may be, with a fistful of salt.
We can gain some comfort from the past
Most of these views will be based on, or greatly influenced by, price movements over the past few months and on other recent indicators that the economy and lending might be turning around.
However, monthly figures by themselves are unreliable and are as good as meaningless, and, even if we consider trends over six to 12 months, all that tells us is what happened over that period. It doesn't tell us what's going to happen over the next six to 12 months.
Quality historical data on property prices is surprisingly limited, with the best records being kept in the past few decades. Based on that relatively small period of time we can see that no one owning a property for at least ten years has come out worse for wear, even if they bought at the peak of a boom. This doesn't mean that a significant loss can't happen over longer periods, but it does give us some reassurances that buying a property is a good purchase in the long run.
The exact point in time that you buy, over the long run, becomes less important than ensuring you can afford the repayments, even if interest rates were to rise significantly.
More: Property market is back to normal | Why I hate high house prices
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General Inflation is plainly a MAJOR FACTOR in House prices as it influences [Not Least] Interest Rates. Inflation & Interest Rates may well RISE much more due to imports rising as the Pound PLUMMETS in regard to the Euro. Remember OIL & Gas is bought in Dollars so this matters also. Much of our Food now comes from the Eurozone [Now Proving to be a 'Stable Currency Area] We will probably come to DEEPLY Regret not following Spain, Germany & France [Especially] into the Euro. Certain Tabloids, as well as politticians, have whipped up prejudices against the Euro [Remember 'Up Your, DeLours'?] Many will now be not only be paying DOUBLE for food and holidays from/to the Eurozone but paying in terms of paying the Banks via their Bureau De Changes as well. [Something our continental partners only need to do if they come HERE!!] Remember TWO Euros to the Pound??
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time2go: The biggest component in every house price is the LAND! Anyone who has looked at new build properties in different areas of the UK and has seen the exact SAME brand new houses half price in some areas (e.g. Corby!!) than others, understands that. Anyone who has seen the rebuilding cost of his property at the insurance papers understand that too, as it's much lower than the purchase price. Anyone who ever was interested in building a house, and found out that a small plot is "worth" over £200k just for the land knows that very well! The land is the problem is UK (especially in the South East), the insane difficult planning laws, all the green belt malarkey, every neighbour who objects a new house being built nearby (like his house didn't need to be built in the past!), etc. But the root of it all is the conservative mentality in this country thinking that by not building many new houses, we're all richer as our properties increase in value. What about our children who need a house, or ourselves when we want to move house? The only people who can win at this, is the wise ones who sell and move abroad where houses are so much cheaper. The proper and realistic price for a brand new detached 4 bed house with everyone making money and good profit is £180k (as in Corby). Everything beyond that is the difficulty acquiring the land and the planning permission. Let's do the same with cars, let's restrict the sale of new cars to 5% of today's numbers and then we all will be richer driving our old bangers for 30 years as they will be worth much more.
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Navigator- I think that is sound advice about not putting all your eggs in one basket. I know some people who sold and moved abroad before property prices escalated last time. When they came back to the UK they were in no position to purchase a property in the area they used to live in, even though they had benefited from numerous tax breaks whilst being 'non resident'. This country is short of housing it appears every adult child wants to move out of the family home as soon as they can. This is one factor that feeds demand (in both rental as well as sales) and consequently helps to inflate property prices. So although I would agree that buying 10 properties in an attempt to live of the rental is a risky strategy, having one to add to your 'future income' may not be such a terrible idea. Pumping money into a pension also requires careful planning, particularly when you are about to retire. I think as a financial planner it would have been helpful to point this out Particularly as some people will think it is just a case of putting the money away, wait until you are 65 then contact your pension provider and hey presto you can dance away on those hip replacements of yours. An exit strategy is needed otherwise a crash in the market shortly before you retire could have a devastating effect on your retirement plans.
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23 September 2009