Autumn Statement 2014 preview: what will George Osborne say?
We take a look at what the Chancellor is likely to say in this week's Autumn Statement.
Today George Osborne delivers the Autumn Statement. It’s his chance to update Parliament and the nation at large on the Government’s spending and taxation plans.
However, this year, it’s also an opportunity to kickstart the campaigning ahead of the 2015 General Election.
Having said that, it doesn’t appear that there is too much money left for vote-grabbing giveaways.
And when she got there, the cupboard was bare
The Prime Minister set the tone a couple of weeks ago, emphasising that “red warning lights” were flashing on the dashboard of the global economy, and warning off spending, borrowing and taxing our way to prosperity.
And now the forecasting group, the EY ITEM Club, has warned that the “fiscal cupboard is bare”, leaving the Chancellor little room for manoeuvre.
Why things are stretched
While the economy has seen stronger growth, that hasn’t boosted public finances to the degree anticipated, which has made it “virtually impossible” for the Government to hit the Office for Budget Responsibility’s borrowing target, according to the ITEM Club.
The big factor here is Income Tax. Despite unemployment falling to levels last seen before the financial crash, wage growth has been very low, while the new jobs have been at the lower paid end of the spectrum. Couple that with big increases in the personal allowance – the amount you earn before you begin paying Income Tax – and the Government is left looking at disappointing Income Tax receipt figures.
So with little money around to fund eye-catching giveaways, what can we expect?
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The roads revolution
The Government has already announced that it is to spend £15 billion on a “roads revolution” in England. There will be 100 road improvement schemes, plus an extra 1,300 new miles of extra lanes will be added to motorways and A roads, including improving junctions on the M25.
It’s worth noting that it was announced back in 2013 that this money would be put towards improving the nation’s roads, so it’s not exactly a ‘new’ announcement.
Pensioner Bonds
The Chancellor announced the launch of Pensioner Bonds back in the Budget, but the exact interest rates they will pay will be confirmed in the Autumn Statement.
It’s expected that the one-year bond will pay around 2.8%, while the three-year bond will pay around 4%. They will be open to those aged 65 or over, but you can only save a maximum of £10,000 in them and they pay interest on an annual rather than monthly basis, so aren't helpful for pensioners needing a monthly income.
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More money for the NHS
It has been widely leaked that the NHS can expect a significant funding bonus, of up to as much as £2 billion. The Chancellor will apparently describe the extra money as a “down payment” to secure the future of the health service.
Pensions
This year’s Budget was defined by the big pensions freedom changes announced by the Chancellor, and there is an expectation that he will return to the subject in the Autumn Statement.
One rumoured change is around annuities, and revising what happens when a retiree dies. As things stand, if a couple takes out a joint annuity, the surviving partner pays tax of up to 55% on the money they receive when their spouse dies. However, having drastically cut these so-called ‘death taxes’ for pensioners that opt for income drawdown, the Chancellor is expected to do the same for those who have bought an annuity, thereby levelling the playing field.
It is expected that, as with the income drawdown changes, there will be no tax to pay on deaths before the age of 75, while those after 75 will be taxed as income.
Inheritance Tax
The number of people having to pay Inheritance Tax on their estates after death is rising. According to Government figures, around 35,600 homes will be hit with an Inheritance Tax bill this year, rising to 43,800 next year.
Perhaps that’s why accountant Baker Tilly is predicting a big increase in the threshold before you have to pay the tax.
The Conservative Party has long had increasing this threshold as an ambition, and Baker Tilly reckons this week the Chancellor will finally pull the trigger on bumping it up from £325,000 to £1 million for individuals (or from £650,000 to £2 million for couples).
Stamp Duty
Nationwide Building Society has written to the Chancellor to urge him to reform Stamp Duty in order to “better reflect house price inflation and to stimulate market activity”. The Building Societies Association has also called for “long overdue” reform.
It would be a popular move, too – changing the Stamp Duty brackets topped a poll last week by Rightmove on the housing policies the post-election Government should implement, with 35% of the votes, ahead of extending Help to Buy and introducing a mansion tax.
What do you want to see George Osborne announce on Wednesday? And how would you pay for it? Let us know in the Comments section below.
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