Income drawdown: why you shouldn't follow this 'golden rule'
Pensioners using income drawdown to fund their retirement could run out of cash by following this dated advice.
Up to one in five pensioners are at risk of being left penniless by relying on an out-dated ‘golden rule’ to calculate the rate at which they drawdown their pension, it has been claimed.
Back in 1994, a US study produced the ‘4% rule’, which stated that someone who left their pension invested in the stock market could afford to withdraw 4% a year to fund their lifestyle without running out of cash.
However, new research from pension firm Aegon found that a 65-year-old withdrawing 4% of their initial pension pot each year now stands a 20% chance of running out of money later in life.
Take control of your investments with a Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP)
Income drawdown
The introduction of pension freedoms back in 2015 has led to more than a million pensioners accessing their pension pots and withdrawing cash to fund their retirement.
Income drawdown, which allows you to keep your pension invested but to withdraw a regular income, has been used to take £9.2 billion since April 2015.
It’s feared many of those withdrawals may not have been thought through properly.
Just 20% of people accessing their pensions take professional financial advice, with the rest relying on their own assessment of their income needs and investment skills to fund their later life.
Why the 4% ‘golden rule’ doesn't stack up
The problem is today’s combination of increased life expectancy and lower interest rates means withdrawing 4% of your pot a year puts you in great risk of burning through your funds too quickly and being left with nothing in the last years of your life.
A 65-year-old withdrawing 4% of their initial pension pot each year stands a one in five chance of running out of money if they live to be 95, according to analysis by Aegon.
“Planning a retirement income to last a lifetime requires careful thought and those tempted to ‘do it themselves’, taking an income based on the historic 4% rule of thumb, need to be aware of the risks of running out of money,” says Steven Cameron, pensions director at Aegon.
“The 4% rule was developed in the US in the 90s, at a time when interest rates were significantly higher.”
The research found that an annual income rate of between 1.7% and 3.6%, depending on your life expectancy and investment strategy was more likely to leave you with enough money to get you to the end of your days.
How to make your pension last
Working out how much you can afford to take out of your pension each year and leave enough to fund you for decades is incredibly difficult.
You need to factor in your attitude to risk, forecast life expectancy, consider future care costs and estimate how your pot will grow.
Get your sums wrong and you could find yourself running out of money just at the point in life when you need plenty of cash to cover increasing care costs.
Read more in: Find out how much you need to save for retirement.
“For such an important decision, we always recommend people speak to a financial adviser who can offer a personal recommendation,” says Cameron.
“Advisors can also keep a close eye on how investments are performing as well as reviewing changes in personal circumstances, suggesting changes to income, whether up or down on an ongoing basis.”
Take control of your investments with a Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP)
More on retirement income:
How to boost your income in retirement
State Pension: 6 mistakes that impact how much you get paid
Deferring your State Pension: how much can you get and is it worth it?
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Typo error in my previous post. One third is With Profit and two thirds in other funds. Apologies
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Nicknuts, thanks for the actual (personal) info. I'm heartened. I reach 60 soon and my personal pension matures. It's with the Standard Life. I have varied options available to me but buying an annuity is not my choice at all. Initially, I'll probably wait a few months but the plan is to move elements of my pension into a draw-down friendly fund. Approx. two thirds of my total pension pot is currently in the Standard Life's With Profits fund. This was closed to new business some years ago. However, this fund carries a 4% per year growth guarantee until I'm 75; I will leave that portion alone and let it grow. The other two thirds of the pot will be invested in a mix of funds providing, I hope, a return of approx. 10% per annum. There are 350 funds to choose from with the S.Life alone; my research shows many of these have performed at better than 8% per annum for at least the past 10 years (averaged out). A few months ago I created a spreadsheet. It factors in my state pension I'll receive in seven years and my wife's shortly after that. I've taken the 4% guaranteed in the W.P. part, assumed a variety of growths (4%, 6%, 10%) on the other part, allowed for a variety of monthly draw-downs, increasing yearly to account for inflation. The end result is by age 85 there's still a sizable amount left in the pot even with a mid-range 6% growth on the two-thirds, non-WP element. What's left is then passed to my wife if I die first or our kids when we've both gone. That is not the case with an annuity. Also, If I die before age 75 the pot is passed to my wife (or kids) without any tax implications for the beneficiary. Perhaps Lovemoney could offer readers a similar spreadsheet and allow us to calculate start amounts, draw-down amounts, growth rate variances etc etc. But, Nicknuts, again thankyou. My hopes are just that but your actual experience gives strength to my hopes.
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Might help if we pensioners were allowed to be tax exempt, or at least have a higher threshold, like we used to have. A draw-down is infinitely better than a rip-off, locked-in annuity. If I go, my wife continues to own and benefit from the draw-down. It's not just lost. I'm taking between 6 and 7%, and over 3 three years, the fund has remained constant. And you can always vary the income at a drop of a hat to suit fund value.
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19 February 2017